What Ukraine reveals about NATO and the EU

Russia's military buildup along the Ukrainian border has prompted a coherent response from NATO and exposed the EU's divisions. Without a clear policy toward its eastern neighbors and Moscow, the union cannot meet today's geopolitical challenges.

They don't like to admit it. But there is an unnecessary rivalry between NATO and the European Union. NATO is a military, defensive organization, while the EU is an economic and political one with vast resources to make a difference for its members and its neighbors. The two organizations can complement each other, with NATO focusing on military operations and the EU on civilian missions.

Crises in Europe's eastern neighborhood, most recently Russia's military intimidation of Ukraine to the point where Moscow is threatening its sovereignty and independence, are testing NATO and the EU. The outcome will affect Europe's ability to act strategically and integrate further. The signs are not looking good for either.

NATO has had its fair share of differences among its European members. You may recall how the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 nearly destroyed NATO. France and Germany then sided with Russia to oppose the attack. Moscow almost achieved its long-standing goal of splitting the transatlantic alliance. NATO’s military intervention in Libya in 2011 and its recent withdrawal from Afghanistan left the alliance “wounded” and demoralized.

But since Russia has again threatened to invade Ukraine, NATO has shown courage. It is sending troops to the Baltic states and Romania. Although Ukraine or Georgia are not likely to join the alliance anytime soon, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg refuses to give in to Russia's demand to rule out accession.

NATO's strength would be truly tested if the alliance offered Ukraine a Membership Action Plan. That would put the country on a trajectory toward NATO, but it would also lead to an unpredictable reaction from Russia. Remember how NATO opened the door to Montenegro, which was not at all prepared to join the alliance and was threatened by Russia if it did. Nothing happened.

That aside, in Ukraine NATO is holding the line. This is despite Germany’s efforts to stop some of its members from sending weapons to Kiev. Most notably, and this is the big difference between NATO and the EU, most of the alliance’s Western and Eastern European members are now beginning to share a common perception of the threat.

In the EU it is not like that.

When it comes to Ukraine, in addition to the lack of almost any leadership from the European Commission, the European External Action Service, and the European Council, the bloc is riddled with divisions.

It is not just that member states have struggled to agree on additional sanctions against Russia. The two most important countries, France and Germany, do not seem to take the views of the Baltic states and central Europeans seriously, unlike NATO. It is as if Central Europe and the Baltics have broken the comfort zone that characterized the EU before that great enlargement of 2004. The crisis in Ukraine has highlighted these differences.

This is the EU's greatest weakness: the lack of any strategic policy towards its eastern neighbors on the one hand and towards Russia on the other. The unfolding crisis in Ukraine confirms these intellectual, political and strategic deficits.

It would make a big difference if Germany took the lead in moving the EU away from this. That seems unlikely. The government in Berlin is divided over how to deal with Russia. One wing of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party has become attached to the concept of Ostpolitik. Supporters of this Cold War policy believe that strengthening political, trade and economic ties with Moscow would bring Russia closer to the West. Instead, it has made Germany’s political elites and economic lobbies more dependent on Russia.

This dependency, illustrated by the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, has deepened suspicions among Nordics, Baltics, and central Europeans in the EU about Germany’s bifurcation of Russia and how its position on Ukraine is viewed through the prism of Russia. Indeed, because of these views, it is difficult to see the EU becoming more politically integrated. The distrust of Berlin runs deep.

France’s stance has also rattled some EU governments. French President Emmanuel Macron’s calls for a Europe to build its own strategic and defensive capabilities are not about making the bloc independent of NATO or the United States. They are about preparing Europe to deal with a changing geopolitical landscape and power shifts dominated by China and Russia. Their policies could undermine Western democracies and EU stability if Europeans do not recognize the nature of the threats posed by Beijing and Moscow. Ukraine should force a major rethink in European capitals.

Source: carnegieeurope