No bloc won a majority – who will lead Israel now?

A coalition of parties can form a government in Israel if they together secure a majority of 61 seats in parliament.

Current EXIT Polls suggest that Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc will win 50 seats, while the coalition of his main opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, is expected to secure 53 seats. Arab parties are also expected to secure 17-18 seats in the 120-seat parliament.

Netanyahu's Likud party and smaller ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties have no other parties willing to join their coalition, writes skynews.

Eisenkot's coalition, which includes his Yashar party, as well as the Together, Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu parties, faces a similar problem.

This leaves both blocs without the majority needed to govern.

But what happens if the elections produce the same result?

If no coalition secures 61 seats, the outgoing government will continue in power until a new coalition is formed and sworn in.

Netanyahu means he will remain in office as prime minister, leading a so-called caretaker government.

Therefore, a blockade between the opposition and parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel would constitute another victory for Netanyahu, who has previously continued to govern through a caretaker government.

From April 2019 to November 2022, Israel held five elections, with Netanyahu remaining in power for most of that period.

This enabled him to set the security agenda and direct conflicts in the wider region.

What can and cannot a government in office do?

Caretaker governments face some limitations compared to regular governments. They are expected to show restraint in making long-term commitments, but, in fact, they have more powers when it comes to replacing ministers.

A caretaker government may appoint a Knesset member to the position of minister to replace a minister who has resigned, been dismissed, or has died, without the need for Knesset approval, as would be required for a regular government.

"Ultimately, Netanyahu doesn't need to win the next election. He just needs to make sure everyone else loses," said Joseph Mansour, a former adviser to a Knesset member.

The incumbent government would continue to remain in power until new elections, which are likely to be held at least seven months after the current elections.

New elections would either lead to the formation of a new government about two months later, or the incumbent government could remain in power if no coalition manages to secure a majority.

Is Israel heading towards a unity government or new elections?

The possibility of forming a unity government, which would include Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, seemed unlikely, as Eisenkot has refused to serve in a Netanyahu-led government, including one where the post of prime minister would be shared on a rotating basis.

Other opposition leaders have also ruled out the possibility of joining a coalition led by the prime minister.

Eisenkot has demanded that the leader of the largest party in the opposition bloc become his candidate for prime minister, although no agreement on this issue has been announced within the bloc, writes Jerusalempost.

Exit polls have also raised the possibility of the formation of a minority government, which could win a vote of confidence in the Knesset without having an absolute majority of 61 seats.

The most natural thing would be to consider the possibility of reaching an agreement with one of the Arab parties, but the biggest obstacle is his own declaration that he would not enter into such an agreement.

At the time, this seemed like an unnecessary restriction he had imposed on himself. Polls suggested he would not lose many votes and such a deal would give him much more room to maneuver.

However, perhaps the statements made before the elections can be interpreted more flexibly, writes skynews.

An agreement with the Ra'am party certainly seems possible, especially since this party is running a Jewish candidate for the first time, who could be appointed Minister of National Security as part of the agreement.

Currently, Ra'am is projected to win seven seats, which would bring Eisenkot's bloc to a total of 59 seats. So very close, but not enough to secure a majority.

However, if the exit polls are not entirely accurate and the number of seats reaches 61, such a deal would undoubtedly be tempting.

Official results will be determined after the vote count.

Exit polls have differed from the final results in previous elections, while official results will be determined after the ballots are counted.

The political stalemate could eventually lead to new elections, although negotiations on coalition formation may yet produce an agreement between the parties.

In the opposition bloc, Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad party is projected to be the third largest party, with 12 to 14 seats, according to exit polls.

Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party is projected to win 7 to 9 seats, while Yair Golan's Democrats are expected to secure 9 to 10 seats.

Meanwhile, in Netanyahu's bloc, the Otzma Yehudi party of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is projected to win 6 to 7 seats.

The Religious Zionist Party–Zehut, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, is projected to secure six seats.

The main ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties are expected to win 12 to 13 seats together. According to exit polls, Shas is expected to take six seats, while United Torah Judaism (UTJ) is projected to win 6 to 7 seats.

Pro and opposition reactions

The leader of the opposition Yashar party, Gadi Eisenkot, has declared that the preliminary results of the elections in Israel show complete distrust of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, vowing to act to replace him as soon as possible.

In a reaction published on the social network X, Eisenkot said that the results of the polls after the polls closed reflect the attitude of the Zionist majority and the majority of Israeli citizens towards the current government.

"If these are the final results, then this constitutes a victory for the Zionist state-forming majority in Israel," he wrote.

Eisenkot vowed to act immediately to implement the will of the citizens, to replace Netanyahu's government and form a government of Zionist mobilization.

Meanwhile, the reaction of Benjamin Netanyahu, whose coalition bloc, according to predictions, is expected to win fewer seats than his left-wing rivals, is still awaited.

Meanwhile, his Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, has reacted over the last hour on social media.

"The celebrations of the left are premature," he wrote in X.

"The complacency of biased commentators is laughable. One thing seems pretty clear: Likud is the largest party in Israel."