CEPA report: Russia is waging a "shadow war" in Europe, the risk of escalation increases

A new report from the Center for European Policy Analysis warns that Russia is not only engaging in confrontation with the West in Ukraine, but also through a broad and ongoing “shadow war” campaign across Europe.

According to the study, while Ukraine remains the main front of the war, European countries have also become targets of Russian operations that include sabotage of critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, interference in energy systems and surveillance of military facilities.

The report highlights that these actions are rarely officially acknowledged by Moscow and often go without a strong response from European countries, creating an environment where aggression continues without high costs.

According to CEPA, Russia's activities are not simply temporary hybrid tactics, but part of a well-organized conflict system, rooted in ideology and supported by state institutions.

This system, the report says, does not make a clear distinction between war and peace, considering military, cyber and covert operations as part of a single strategy for the survival of the Kremlin regime.

The “shadow war” includes the use of criminal networks and intermediaries for acts of sabotage and intimidation, the manipulation of critical infrastructure such as submarine cables and energy networks, as well as ongoing cyber campaigns targeting both European institutions and societies.

Europe's failure to prevent it

The report assesses that Europe's failure to curb this campaign is not related to a lack of awareness, but to the way it responded.

Among the main problems are mentioned:

Treating incidents as isolated criminal cases, and not as part of a state strategy;

Slow response compared to the pace of Russian operations;

Hesitation due to fear of escalation;

Reliance on high standards of legal evidence, which makes rapid response difficult.

These factors, according to CEPA, have created a gap between how Russia acts and how the West responds.

Call for a change of strategy

The report recommends a new approach to preventing "shadow warfare", emphasizing the need to:

Greater coordination between European countries;

Greater involvement of security and intelligence institutions;

Establishing swift and predictable consequences for Russian actions;

Focus on weakening Russia's capabilities to conduct these operations.

According to the report, Europe must accept that a controlled level of escalation is inevitable in order to avoid a larger crisis in the future.

The risk of a wider conflict

CEPA warns that, if this campaign remains without an effective response, it could lead to more serious consequences for European security.

"The question is no longer whether Russia will continue the war in the shadows, but whether Europe will act to stop it or allow these operations to set the conditions for escalation," the report said.

According to the analysis, the way Europe responds to this challenge will also be watched by other global powers, making the issue not only regional, but with wider international consequences.

Full analysis HERE.