“A disaster not seen since Chernobyl”, and it’s getting worse and worse: A great danger floats in the flooded south of Ukraine

That the situation in Kherson is much worse than we all think was confirmed by Ukrainian professor Maxim Kameniecki of the Kyiv Institute of International Relations, who said that the consequences of the environmental impact of the Kahovka dam breach “can be compared to the consequences of Chernobyl”. The figures so far are horrific – five people have already died, around 600 square metres of the Kherson region is under water, and 68% of it relates to the left bank of the Dnieper River, which is under Russian occupation. Nearly 14,000 houses have been flooded and 4,300 people have been evacuated so far. And this is just the beginning – the true scale of this tragedy will only become apparent once the water recedes.

“What Ukraine has faced can be compared to the scale of Chernobyl … We are waiting for the level to rise in Kherson, not only from the left but also from the right bank of the Dnieper, where the water has risen three to five metres,” the professor said.

Kahovka is one of Ukraine’s largest power plants, containing about 18 million cubic metres of water. Experts had previously predicted that if the dam were to burst, a tidal wave would form and water would submerge nearby areas. The destruction of the dam could leave the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant without water to cool its reactors, causing a “historic catastrophe”.

The Moscow Times has analysed and reported that a few days after the dam’s demolition, the water will cause flooding along the Bug River near Nikolayev.

The water flow will peak at 14 000 cubic metres, which compares with the average flow of Niagara Falls, which is 2 400 cubic metres per second.

Ecocide

The Ukrainian defence ministry has accused Russia of “ecocide”.

“Mass destruction of flora and fauna, poisoning of air or water resources, and any other acts that can cause an ecological catastrophe,” the criminal code reads.

According to Ukrhidroenergo, water from the reservoir, which has a capacity of about 18 billion cubic metres, will flow completely down the Dnieper in the next four days.

“The Kahovka reservoir will be emptied very soon. There will be bare earth with mud and hundreds of destroyed plants and dead animals. In addition, it will cause a shortage of drinking water and drought in the whole of southern Ukraine, which was supplied with water from the reservoir,” said Ruslan Havriluk, Director of the National Ecological Centre of Ukraine.

The ecological system of meadows along the Dnieper and river islands downstream will also disappear. Machine oil from the hydropower plant also poses a threat. It is estimated that more than 150 tonnes of oil have leaked.

The locals said that the settlements where they have lived so far “will be a desert”, not forgetting the risk of contamination.

Residents walk through flooded streets with children on their shoulders, dogs in their hands and personal belongings in plastic bags, while rescuers in rubber dinghies search the surrounding area, where the water has already reached heights above their heads.

The Russian-controlled Kazkov Dibrov Zoo on the banks of the river was completely flooded and all 300 animals died.

In the village of Marinskoye in the Dnipropetrovsk region, 850 kilograms of fish died.

Another problem faced by the inhabitants of the Kherson region is landmines. The breaching of a large dam has only made it more difficult to locate these ‘ticking bombs’.

The “Icing on the cake”

Erik Tolefsen, Head of the Weapons Clearance Unit, noted that the mines have caused great concern among the residents of Kherson, as well as among the rescue teams.

“We knew where the dangers were. Now we don’t know, except that they are somewhere downstream,” he said.

Nataliya Khumeniuk, an official of Ukraine’s Southern Military Command, told Ukrainian TV that “many mines (in Russian-occupied areas) have now become floating mines.”

“They are very dangerous,” she said, explaining that they are likely to explode if they collide or hit something.

Although the flooding was spoiling the image of the frontline, i.e. the Russian defensive positions on the Dnieper river, the soldiers opened fire on the locals.

Another problem

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry reported that Russia is shelling areas around the southern Kherson region, where evacuations are taking place.

Two police officers were injured in the Russian shelling.

“The Russian army continues to bombard the territory where evacuation measures are being carried out. One hour ago, two policemen were injured in this area. The bombardment is continuing now,” Interior Minister Igor Klimenko said.

He also warned of the risk of landmines due to rising water levels.

The decrease in water levels upstream of the Nova Kahovka dam threatens something else – the Crimea peninsula.

Danger around the corner

Water supplies from springs are limited to the groundwater produced by rain. For this reason, in the early 1960s, the Soviet authorities built a 402-kilometre canal starting from the town of Tavrisk, with branches to the inland agricultural area.

As the climate changed, the weather in Crimea became warmer and rain less frequent, the North Crimean Canal gained in importance.

After the Russian annexation of the peninsula, Ukrainian officials blocked the canal and drastically reduced supplies, leading to shortages in the region. Russian troops then took control of the canal and restarted the water flow.

The Russian-appointed Governor of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, said that the region had sufficient supplies, around 80 percent, but warned that the water level could drop, especially as the region enters the hot summer season.

For the Russian-controlled agricultural regions, parts of Zaporizhzhya and the Kherson region, the lack of irrigation from the depleted Dnieper could also be catastrophic./Nova S/