Vučić faces his biggest political challenge, elections under the shadow of suspicions of manipulation

After 14 years of dominance in Serbian politics, Aleksandar Vučić faces the biggest challenge to his rule in the October 25 parliamentary elections, from an opposition movement that emerged from massive student protests.

However, the campaign has been accompanied by growing concerns about the fairness of the electoral process; REL's Balkan Service has revealed that around 500,000 people have registered to vote without a full address – a fact that raises suspicions of electoral manipulation.

The last elections in Serbia, held in 2023, were followed by protests, after international observers reported irregularities – including the bringing of voters by bus from neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as voter intimidation.

Vucic resigned as president at the end of September and, since he cannot run for a third term, now aims to become prime minister - a position he held from 2014 until assuming the post of head of state in 2017.

His rule has been characterized by an attempt to maintain balance: he has tried to cultivate good relations with Western countries while simultaneously approaching Russia and China. However, Chinese investments have come at a political cost.

Tragedy in Novi Sad

The elections are being held just days before the second anniversary of the tragedy in Novi Sad.

The death of 16 people after a renovated shelter collapsed at the city's railway station on November 1, 2024, sparked nationwide protests. It came amid reports of corrupt practices at the construction site - a major government project run by Chinese companies.

The government denied these allegations, and the protests were met with police violence and arrests. One of the most serious incidents occurred on March 15, 2025, when authorities allegedly used an illegal sonic weapon against peaceful protesters.

A few days after another student protest in June this year, Vucic announced that he would resign and call early elections.

Polls so far show that the Serbian electorate is largely divided between those who support a broad coalition around the ruling party, and those who support the student movement.

“These are the first elections in more than a decade whose outcome is indeed very uncertain,” said Vladimir Bilčik, former European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia.

The students have no formal leaders, and their electoral list consists of non-partisan figures, most of whom are university professors. At the top of their list of candidates is cardiologist Ilija Srdanović, although they have clarified that this does not necessarily mean that he will become prime minister if they win.

Fair choice?

The Serbian government says it has since implemented all recommendations made by the OSCE election observation mission following its criticism of the 2023 elections. This was disputed in an interim report by the OSCE, which has 300 observers in Serbia to monitor the vote.

REL investigations have found irregularities in the first stage of the electoral process: the voter register. REL discovered that more than half a million people listed on the register did not have a correct registered address, lacking a street name or house number.

REL also found hundreds of registered voters listed in public facilities, including social welfare centers, and in homes that could not reasonably accommodate so many residents.

These findings have attracted public attention because election observers have previously raised suspicions that the authorities organized “mass migration” of voters – Serbian citizens from neighboring countries who allegedly registered at addresses in Serbia to gain the right to vote there, potentially benefiting the ruling party.

Investigations have also found that the number of eligible voters for Serbian elections in Bosnia and Kosovo increased ahead of the vote. Both are places where ethnic Serbs are considered a significant source of support for Vucic's Progressive Party.

Four employees of Serbian-funded institutions in Kosovo told REL that they were being pressured to vote for the ruling party. Their identities or exact place of employment cannot be disclosed. In Serb-majority areas of Kosovo, various educational and healthcare institutions receive state funding from Serbia.

Domestic election observers have documented similar practices in workplaces in several Serbian municipalities.

The elections are also taking place amid allegations of illegal surveillance and the arrest of government opponents, as Vucic has tightened his control over the security services during his 14 years in power.

A statement issued by the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on October 21 noted reports of illegal surveillance of opposition members and efforts to discredit and undermine election observation missions.

A report by SHARE, a Serbian non-profit organization focused on digital security, along with researchers from the University of Toronto, has raised allegations of at least 16 cases of the use of the “Pegasus” surveillance software – which is illegal in Serbia – during 2026.

The opposition and students accuse authorities of conducting surveillance, while government officials deny spying on their opponents.

Serbia has seen a decline in freedoms over the last decade, a trend that is also noted in the latest report by the international monitoring organization "Freedom House".

Between East and West

Some American lawmakers have warned that Moscow could play an active role in the elections in Serbia, while the European Parliament has also expressed concern about Russian influence operations in the country.

“Russia is making its best resources, tactics and methods available to monitor, suppress and thwart the citizens of Serbia, as well as the powerful student movement seeking to restore the rule of law in the country,” said Republican Congressman Joe Wilson.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally expressed his support for Vučić on the eve of the elections.

During the election campaign, Vučić vowed to continue his foreign policy course, including refusing to respond to EU calls to impose sanctions on Russia over its large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The student movement has focused its campaign on the fight against corruption, leaving foreign policy in the background. However, it has spoken out against international sanctions against Russia and reaffirmed support for Belgrade's official position, which refuses to recognize Kosovo's independence.

Meanwhile, Serbia's EU integration process has stalled, leaving the country – which was once among the most advanced, along with Montenegro – at the bottom of the group of candidate countries. No new chapter in Serbia's EU accession negotiations has been opened since the end of 2021.

The backlog in the field of democracy, unresolved relations with Kosovo, and the refusal to impose sanctions on Russia are among the main reasons for this impasse.