Republicans and Democrats in the US unite against Serbia, demand changes in Belgrade's policy

The bipartisan proposal for a law on Serbia, which has been sent to the US Senate, is important not only because it has a Republican and a Democrat senator behind it, but also because "it shows that both parties are following developments in Serbia independently of the White House's position," says Olivia Olson, a fellow at the Atlantic Council's European Center.

The bill was introduced by Republican Senator Chuck Grassley and Democrat Richard Blumenthal, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty writes.

What is proposed in the law for Serbia?

The draft law foresees, among other things, the imposition of financial and visa sanctions against individuals who obstruct international agreements important for the stability of the Western Balkans region, the alignment of Serbia's foreign policy with that of the EU and NATO, as well as distancing itself from the influence of Russia, China and Iran.

Serbia is required to strengthen the rule of law, investigate corruption cases, as well as a full investigation into the circumstances of the Novi Sad tragedy, the collapse of the roof shelter at the railway station and the death of 16 people, as well as an investigation into the alleged excessive use of force against demonstrators in Serbia.

For the law to enter into force, it is necessary to be approved in both chambers of Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Two months ago, a bill almost identical to this one, which was submitted to the Senate for approval, was introduced to the House of Representatives by Republican Congressman Joe Wilson and Democrat Bill Keating in late August.

The bill in the US Senate and the elections in Serbia

Given the intense developments in the weeks leading up to the election, Vučić – who resigned as Serbia's president on September 27, a month before polling day – is largely focused on domestic issues, Olson adds.

"His relations with the US have historically been closer to the executive branch of government. The new US-Serbia strategic dialogue and the administration's interest in EXPO 2027 in Serbia are considered the culmination of relations between his government and the Trump administration," she says.

The draft law, meanwhile, also foresees the suspension of the strategic dialogue, which after several postponements and a year and a half after it was opened, the strategic dialogue between Serbia and the US was renewed with the signing of the Memorandum of Cooperation in the fields of energy and infrastructure in July of this year.

Why is the Senate proposal "decisive"?

The moment at which the bipartisan bill on Serbia has been sent to the US Senate for procedure is crucial, assesses Ilva Tare, associate at the Atlantic Council's European Center, in a statement to REL.

"The law itself represents a rare bipartisan message from both houses of Congress, sent just three weeks before the October 25 elections," says this interlocutor.

"Even the State Department, in its report on the Western Balkans, emphasizes that weak governance in Serbia creates space for Russian and Chinese influence. However, the language of this law is closer to Brussels' efforts to advance the rule of law and strengthen institutions, especially when it comes to democratic conditionality," Tare underlines.

"Will this law change Vučić's behavior? I believe this will not happen overnight and not without internal and external pressure. Also, we will have to see the outcome of the elections and whether the results will be accepted," says Tare.

Adding that, by approving the draft law, Congress would be taking an important stance, Tare emphasizes that the initiative comes at an important moment, considering that early parliamentary elections are being held in Serbia on October 25.

The Student List participates in them, as a representative of the student movement, which was formed on the wave of anti-corruption protests that lasted for more than a year.

The draft law particularly emphasizes the need to hold fair and free elections, as well as guaranteeing freedom of expression and assembly.

"These elections could also put an end to Vučić's long-standing foreign policy of maintaining relations with all sides simultaneously, while this process could mark a moment of truth," she emphasizes, referring to Serbia's long-standing policy, which is based on parallel cooperation with Russia, China and the US, alongside a commitment to the European integration process.

Will Vučić change his approach?

"Vučić will not change his behavior, no matter what. He will continue to implement his policy, which essentially consists of staying in power for as long as possible," believes Ivana Strander, from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

"But this is extremely important because it sends a very clear signal to the opposition that America is following in Vucic's footsteps," Strander said in a statement to REL, adding that "Vucic is friends with China, Russia and Iran, and with friends like Vucic, Washington does not need enemies."

She adds that Vučić is presented as a pillar of stability, which, in her opinion, is not true.

"He is the one who always wants to raise tensions, then lower them, and then present himself as a pillar of stability," she concludes.

Strander has no dilemmas regarding the direction of external support for the current government in Serbia.

"In fact, Putin is the one who has openly said that he hopes that Vucic will become prime minister. This effectively means that Moscow is ready to destabilize Serbia and provide Vucic with a package of measures to preserve the regime," she says.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, declared at a forum in Moscow two days ago that he hopes that Vucic will be the next Serbian prime minister. This statement is so far the only signal in which direction the Kremlin is looking ahead to the upcoming elections. /REL/