US challenges China: FORGE initiative launched

The United States has faced the challenge posed by China and has decided to launch a global counterattack.

On February 4, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio introduced FORGE, a US initiative for international cooperation on policy coordination on critical raw materials and rare earth metals.

"We want to ensure diversity in the supply of key minerals and secure and resilient supply chains around the world so that all of our economies can thrive without being exposed to the worst-case scenario in which these minerals could be used against us," stressed Marco Rubio.

America's global fork

Depending on the context, the word “forge” can be used as a noun (meaning a smithy) or as a verb, meaning: to forge (metal), to shape (e.g., an alliance) or… to forge (e.g., documents). Most likely, the White House’s latest initiative refers to the first three associations, although cynics might say that after the diplomatic crisis with Greenland, you never know.

FORGE is an acronym for Forum on Geostrategic Resource Engagement. While it sounds complicated and intricate, the idea is quite simple: to become independent of Chinese supply chains for critical raw materials and rare earth elements (REEs).

As Marco Rubio pointed out, FORGE was created to create a platform for cooperation between “like-minded countries,” allies of the United States, who are also interested in diversifying their sources of critical raw materials and securing their supply chains.

The main objective of the project remains the diversification of the entire supply chain, both upstream and downstream. As emphasized during the conference, the FORGE initiative aims to avoid the geographical concentration of mining in only a few countries and to expand refining capacity in the US and partner countries as much as possible. This is especially important given the reduced role of China, which currently accounts for 80-90% of the processing of critical raw materials and rare earth metals.

As part of FORGE, Washington also wants to stabilize the prices of critical raw materials on global markets and actively protect mining investments in Europe, the US and allied countries. One example given is the practice of preventing the development of mining projects when international markets are “flooded” with a particular raw material. As a result, its prices fall, as do the profitability of investments. FORGE aims to curb such practices through international cooperation.

The issue of permits, a phenomenon that renewable energy installations also face, has not been forgotten. Washington's goal is to facilitate and accelerate the processes of issuing environmental permits and fulfilling legal requirements, obtaining mining concessions, etc., as well as including mining projects in the list of priority investments. For example, to date, the average time between obtaining a mining permit and starting production has been almost 29 years in the US.

No mines, no laptops

Both Marco Rubio and JD Vance devoted a lot of space to the issue of correcting what they see as a “historic strategic mistake” in getting rid of the rare metals processing industry in the United States.

“We were blinded,” Rubio said. “Mining is less glamorous than building computers. And building computers is less glamorous than designing them. So we outsourced what seemed old and out of fashion — manufacturing. Until one day we woke up and realized we had outsourced our economic security and our future.”

As announced, the Donald Trump administration wants to reverse the course of history. Mining will once again become an attractive career prospect for the young and talented, and the United States will revive its manufacturing sector.

David Copley, current Special Assistant to the President of the United States and Senior Director for Global Supply Chains at the National Security Council (NSC), presented four main initiatives: investing in mining projects, gathering critical raw materials, protecting American mining companies, rebuilding the American mining ecosystem.

"Our goal is to make the United States a very attractive place for the mining sector again, because this is where we intend to extract and process minerals," Copley emphasized.

Marco Rubio openly admitted that due to competitors operating below market production costs and receiving government subsidies, the private sector is unable to invest in the extraction and processing of critical raw materials.

For this reason, the White House intends to actively support and promote the creation of public-private partnerships, an example of which is the creation of the Orion CMC investment fund. A very interesting move for the "most capitalist country in the world."

All in hand?

As US Vice President JD Vance, who was present at the conference, emphasized, the US administration is “not wasting time writing 200-page reports on the importance of critical raw materials” and is instead focusing on implementing projects and concluding agreements with international partners.

In fact, 54 countries and the European Union were invited to today's conference. Among those in attendance were Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada, the United Kingdom, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bolivia, Argentina, and Brazil. On February 2, Rubio met with Cho Hyun, the foreign minister of South Korea, and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, the foreign minister of India, with whom he also discussed energy security issues.

The list is long, and it is clear that Washington is trying to extensively exploit key economic and political partners.

“We want members to form a trading bloc of allies and partners that will guarantee Americans access to American industrial power, while enabling manufacturing to flourish throughout the region,” Vice President Vance emphasized. “We all have an opportunity for self-sufficiency, so that we never have to rely on anyone but each other.”

Shortly after the conference ended, Reuters reported that the U.S. and Mexico had unveiled a 60-day plan to develop a coordinated trade policy aimed at mitigating risks in critical raw material supply chains. The two countries will focus, among other things, on setting minimum possible prices for certain imported minerals.

The tone of the US administration's statements today was strikingly different from the combative stance that could be observed during the discussion on the US purchase of Greenland. Both Rubio and Vance repeatedly stressed the importance of cooperation and thanked other countries for participating. "We really appreciate that," the Secretary of State said. "We look forward to the discussion."

However, the recent “Greenland crisis” has seriously damaged trust between the European Union and the United States – according to some commentators, it has actually destroyed that trust. The Donald Trump administration and the US president have repeatedly shown that they feel quite comfortable in the position of an “international backyard bully” and will not hesitate to make economic and political threats. Will a return to the rhetoric of cooperation and the perspective of energy security make America’s allies forget the recent crises and return to business as usual? Time will tell.

The Geo Post