Serbia after a year of protests: the political, energy and geopolitical crisis of the Vučić regime

Authorial writing by Dragan Shormaz for The Geopost

After a large rally in Novi Sad marking the anniversary of the collapse of the roof and the murder of 16 people, Serbian citizens clearly demonstrated their irrevocable dissatisfaction with the current regime. However, the student movement, which appears to be the main candidate to take power, is still far from creating a real alternative to Vučić’s regime and the system of government he has established.

When we look at the position of the current regime in Serbia, it is clear that it is in an almost hopeless situation. On the one hand, Vučić’s neo-radicals have completely lost the “all-encompassing” ability that allowed them to rule for 13 years. The first decline in Vučić’s electoral base occurred during the lithium crisis, when a significant portion of conservative pro-Russian voters abandoned him. This process was further exacerbated by the failure of Vučić’s policy towards Kosovo, which was based on unrealistic assessments of the possibility of dividing Kosovo and even more unrealistic expectations spread by the Serbian president through his propaganda machine.

Then came the crisis caused by corruption, which took a bloody toll in the form of 16 lost lives. Increased repression, suppression of media freedoms, flirting with authoritarian regimes, anti-Western rhetoric, and inconsistent claims that a color revolution was underway in Serbia turned pro-European and anti-radical extremist Serbian voters away from the progressive regime. Aware of the loss of his electoral base, Vučić resorted to radical rhetoric and the clientelist system he had built. However, the final blow came with the introduction of sanctions against NIS, which, regardless of the final outcome, will certainly drive away a significant portion of the remaining pro-Russian nationalists who have supported him so far.

And while Vučić is trying to somehow halt the decline in his approval ratings, he is currently facing a challenger who has the ambition to replace him in power, but without a clear program or the credibility to ensure that his election promises will be fulfilled. Political platitudes that boil down to accusations of Kosovo’s betrayal, rejection of cooperation with the EU, and mythical stories of “Serbian integralism” make the Serbian political scene more similar to that which existed in Iran in 1979 on the eve of the Islamic revolution than to the political scene of contemporary European society in the 21st century.

Additional challenges to the stabilization of Serbian political society are posed by increasingly visible economic problems that are undermining the foundations of Serbia’s fragile democracy, which has already been seriously undermined by the installation of the SNS hybrid regime. Serbia has a growth rate of 2.4%, which is weak compared to previous years, inflation is still present, and now investment has become the biggest problem. This year, it is barely 50% of last year’s level, and an even bigger problem is the departure of previous investors!

All this is the result of Aleksandar Vučić’s misguided foreign policy! His “flirting” has paid off! He can no longer count on Russia’s support because he sold ammunition to American companies, which then supplied it to Ukraine! Now the EU is offering him the same deal! Russia does not trust him because it knows that the EU has much greater leverage over the regime due to the power of the market and the ties between the Serbian economy and the EU! On the other hand, this year’s European Commission report on Serbia, for the first time in years, clearly states that Vučić’s regime is autocratic, that it has reduced democratic freedoms and that it is therefore regressing in terms of European integration! Ćaciland in the area between the parliament and presidency buildings is a disgrace for Serbia, as are the arrests of protesters, the suppression of freedom of expression, the suppression of media freedom, the daily clashes with disobedient judges and prosecutors, and the threats of violence by criminals and hooligans against ordinary citizens… could no longer go unnoticed in Brussels! The panic in Belgrade and the attempt to appease the EU by passing a few laws related to the electoral register and REM speak in favor of the fact that Brussels has warned Vučić about something serious. Most likely, this concerns continued access to funds and donations, without which the Serbian economy would experience an even greater decline! President Trump’s administration does not even see Vučić! He disgraced the Trump family with a corruption scandal involving the general staff, he supported Dodik in destabilizing Bosnia, some say he donated to the Democratic campaign, he did not move the embassy to Jerusalem, even though he signed the agreement sitting next to Trump (Kosovo did), and he did not conclude an agreement with Kosovo, to which Trump had also committed himself!

On top of all this, there are US sanctions against NIS, which Vučić has been trying to avoid for months by not changing the company’s ownership structure! This issue must be resolved in the coming days, otherwise Serbia will fall into an unprecedented energy crisis that will cause new problems for citizens and the economy, leading to even more investors leaving the country! On the other hand, the EU is increasingly insisting on imposing sanctions against Russia in order to open cluster 3 and continue accession negotiations!

This is precisely what is most dangerous for Aleksandar Vučić! He is backed into a corner and has no room for maneuver! If he does not impose sanctions against Russia and nationalize NIS, he will plunge the country into economic chaos, which will accelerate his downfall! If he imposes sanctions against Russia and nationalises NIS, he will anger half of Serbia, which would rather overthrow him if he touches Russia than recognise Kosovo! And that’s not all. Who knows what Putin would offer him in this situation – a balcony, tea, a cruise on an expensive yacht…

In the current situation, which threatens to escalate into permanent instability and jeopardize democratic processes in the country, the only way forward for Serbia is to accelerate political reforms in line with European values and move closer to EU membership. However, this option is not at all attractive to Vučić or the people around him, who are mired in corruption and for whom there can be no place in an EU member state. On the other hand, this is the only possible path that could guarantee him a peaceful political retirement and personal safety, which is increasingly threatened by the active operations of Russian services in the field. The fact that these services are freely setting up military camps in the country, actively working to gather alternatives to Vučić’s regime, and increasingly openly threatening him is cause for alarm that should wake Vučić from the complete paralysis caused by fear for his own existence. It is high time he finally applied his favorite slogan, “Surrender is not an option,” to his former Russian friends and finally pulled the country out of the Kremlin’s deadly embrace, into which he irresponsibly plunged it with his own recklessness.
/The Geopost/