Russia’s failure – positive reflections in the Balkans

Three months after the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, some things are already evident. Vladimir Putin’s failure to implement the “blitzkrieg” strategy – an attack by all means for a quick victory – led to the abandonment of the plan to occupy Kiev. The takeover of the Ukrainian capital would create conditions for the implementation of the second part of the plan, which had foreseen the installation of a quisling government. But the lack of support from most Ukrainians, including ethnic Russians, has led Russia to focus only on the south-eastern regions of Ukraine, which are continuing to be annexed.

Moscow’s predictions have been that the Ukrainians do not have strong national feelings and that the Russian army will be welcomed with open arms. Putin and his agitators for quite some time have built up the story that the Ukrainians are an artificial and non-existent nation, while have considered the citizens of Ukraine as a population with Russian ethnic origin, the same as those of Belarus. This expectation turned out to be a fatal mistake of Moscow, which has cost it hugelosses in people and military technology for a period of only three months.

This defeat of Russia has been good news for Western leaders. Their strong statements that Putin’s victory in Ukraine meant the beginning of the collapse of the liberal world order were based on fears of the implementation of this operation by other countries in the world that have asymmetric disputes with neighbors. An example is the dispute between the powerful China and Taiwan which is a small island that has been striving for international recognition of its citizenship since World War II.

What would happen in the Balkans if Russia won the war?

Russia has long implemented the doctrine of the “Russian World”, which means that this country should extend wherever ethnic Russians live.  This is the basis of military interventions and annexations of territories in neighboring countries, then recognize them as independent states, and eventually those countries become part of the Russian Federation. In the Balkans there is also the doctrine of the “Serbian World”, which is almost the same as the Russian one.  There are ethnic Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republika Srpska), Montenegro and Kosovo. All three states face permanent problems, stemming precisely from that doctrine.  The danger in this analogy is another analogy: Serbia’s military superiority over three neighboring states, the same as that of Russia.

The possible victory of the “Russian World” in Ukraine would encourage the implementation of the “Serbian World” in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, where there are significant percentages of the Serb ethnicity living in a geographically compact whole. The risk for these countries is even greater as they are not members of NATO.

Russia’s eventual victory over Ukraine would further complicate Skopje-Sofia relations.The narrative that justified in some way the Russian military aggression in Ukraine was that “there is neither a Ukrainian people nor a Ukrainian nation.” With this Russia claimed that the population living in Ukraine, is essentially of the Russian ethno-cultural matrix. Serbia has the same approach to Montenegro, denying the existence of the Montenegrin people as an ethnic group with its own cultural and historical features.  Bulgaria also denies the existence of the Macedonian people, whom it claims are ethnic Bulgarians assimilated by Tito’s Yugoslavia.

Can Bulgaria intervene militarily in northern Macedonia if the dispute worsens?

As long as the current world order is in place – no. But, the practice that Russia is adopting – the realistic approach without any value or principle, can still bring about such an intervention. Especially in the case that Serbia were to annex northern Kosovo and Republika Srpska.

As the war front shifts to eastern Ukraine, Russia wants to maintain what it has de facto controlled since 2014. Regardless of differing interpretations, Russia has lost the war in Ukraine. This epilogue will have positive effects for the Balkans, which means peace and EU integration. Serbia will eventually have to sit in a chair, that of the West, thus disconnecting close ties with Moscow. Other countries in the region will also be encouraged to intensify cooperation in preparation for resolving complex inter-neighborly problems.  “Ethnic world” projects have for now failed in Ukraine.

Writes: Xhelal Neziri, contributor to The Geopost from Northern Macedonia