Lithium, the protests, and the end of Vučić’s pro-European illusion

Original article by Dragan Sormaz for The Geopost

The anti-Lithium protests, as well as the student protests, had many characteristics and manifestations of patrimonial nationalism. This could be seen both in the characteristics and symbolism that dominated the protests, as well as in the specific groups that directed the protests and created their ideological framework.

The treatment of the protest against the mining of lithium, in some respects a precursor to the student protest, was dominated by an anti-European narrative, in which the EU was accused of attempting to colonise Serbia, and the regime of subjugating and surrendering Serbia to the “European colonisers”. Interestingly, during these protests, the Chinese investment in RTB Bor and the Smederevo steel plant was never mentioned, even though both investments have caused significant negative environmental consequences. The narrative of preserving the nature and traditions of the Serbian countryside from negative Western influences and exploitation was a clear manifestation of the patrimonial nationalism characteristic of 19th century rural societies and represented a deliberate manipulation and instrumentalisation of history and national tradition.

Since the announcement of the first phase of the development of the underground lithium mine “Jadar” in western Serbia, the authorities have faced strong opposition from citizens. What appeared to be a legitimate concern for the protection of nature and people quickly turned into a debate with exclusionary demands for a ban on lithium mining. The key issue from a national security perspective relates to the fact that only in Serbia is a ban sought rather than improvements in technological and environmental standards. The factor of radical and exclusionary demand must be taken into account as a first factor in determining the existence of an information influence operation.

There was a manifestation of street discontent by blocking the motorway through Belgrade with a strong social media campaign. After two years of stagnation of the Jadar project, a very dynamic foreign policy development is taking place. On 23 May 2024, the European Union adopted a law on critical raw materials which, among other things, adopts a framework for strategic partnerships and the application of its standards outside the EU for all its partners. This EU law is a geopolitical and economic response to the immediate consequences of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. On 22 July 2024, Serbia signed a Letter of Intent with the EU on critical raw materials. From day one of the campaign against lithium mining, Telegram channels were set up, often sharing content that had previously been exposed as Russian influence operations in the Global South. Unfortunately, none of the state officials have explicitly attributed or directed influence operations against Russia.19 July 2024 represents a geostrategic turning point regarding Serbia and critical raw materials, including lithium.

On that date, a strategic partnership between Serbia and the EU on critical raw materials was signed. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commissioner Maroš Ševčević were present at the ceremony, together with executives from Western car giants such as Mercedes. By joining European supply chains, Serbia is further strengthening its economic and energy autonomy vis-à-vis China and Russia. Serbia, which has refused to impose sanctions against the Kremlin’s criminal regime since the start of the Russian aggression, is at the same time moving closer to Western integration on key issues such as critical raw materials. The lithium project is said to be the largest single foreign direct investment in Serbia’s history, while estimates by officials and independent experts suggest that it is possible to attract some €12 billion of investment and employ an additional 21,000 people.

Protests across Serbia are carrying the flags of Russia and of Christ Pantocrator, the hallmark of all pro-Russian rallies. A large number of pro-Russian opinion-makers are actively involved in the campaign against the lithium mine, using the well-known narrative of multinational corporations, pollution and environmental destruction, neo-colonialism and similar Russian narratives for the Global South.

Unfortunately, the issue of the lithium mine in Serbia turned out to be just an attempt by Vucic to continue his foreign policy and his belief that he can still show the Serbian public how he makes deals with everyone in the world! In doing so, he has only done enormous damage to the Jadar project. On 4 June, the EU Commission listed the Jadar project as one of 13 new strategic projects related to critical raw materials located outside EU territory. This decision means that a potential mine in Serbia can expect EU support if Serbia allows lithium mining and if Rio Tinto meets all EU environmental standards! But opponents of the mine immediately accused the EU of helping Vučić stay in power to get Serbian lithium! Simply put, Russia is using the case of the lithium mine to put pressure on Vucic to continue to meet all the interests that Moscow has in the Western Balkans!

At the same time, the student protests, following the example of the protests against Lithium, have adopted an agenda of preserving the nature and traditions of Serbia, with a much more visible and active participation of pro-Russian and extreme nationalist groups. For example, Damjan Knežević’s group and Nikola Jović, a former volunteer from the Donbas, were regular participants in these protests. The iconography of the protests consisted of “No surrender” flags, Wagner’s Jesus, the Russian double-headed eagle and the national flag of Russia, and the protests were supported by well-known Russophiles and Putin idol worshippers Emir Kusturica, Danica Grujičić, Branimir Nestorović, Milo Lompar, Danica Crnogorčević, Miloš Biković, etc. On the other hand, the few attempts to fly EU flags have always been violently prevented. However, this has not prevented Russian public diplomacy from offering support to the Serbian regime in its fight against the alleged colour (pro-Western) revolution, even though Russian-controlled extremists have all along participated in the same revolution.

It is obvious that Russia’s objectives were mainly to weaken the Vucic regime, to make it easier for the Russian services to blackmail and control it, or, in the event of its collapse, to bring pro-Russian radical elements to power in Belgrade, through which they could destabilise the whole region.

The end result of these protests in Serbia is that they attract less and less attention from citizens, not only because they waste people’s energy, but also because the longer they last, the easier it is for citizens to recognise the political manipulation that the protests themselves entail. Besides, The Emperor Has No Clothes! And lithium has led to the complete collapse of his foreign policy. Now everyone in the EU knows that he cannot carry out this project because he would have another revolution on his doorstep. He has pressed his decision not to impose sanctions on Russia for so long that now, after the 18th package, he has no choice but to remain silent, but the result is that Serbia is no longer negotiating EU membership and has nothing to gain from being a candidate. From being a leading country in European integration, Serbia has fallen to the bottom of the candidate countries. By the end of the year, Albania will have opened all its clusters and Montenegro will have closed at least a third of its clusters, so these two countries have a great chance of becoming EU members before 2030!

Believe me, that’s not all. The real problems for Vucic are yet to come, and the challenges are getting harder for those who want to be his alternative, and they are still without a clear EU commitment! I will write about this in the coming months.

/The Geopost/