Three scenarios: What is Putin’s future after the war in Ukraine?

Russian President Vladimir Putin probably expected the war in Ukraine to be his greatest achievement, showing everyone how strong Russia is and how far it can go after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The annexation of Ukraine was to be the first step in the restoration of the Russian Empire. Putin wanted to show that the USA was far from Western Europe and that Russia and China were created to lead the new international order.

But it did not work out that way. Kiev is staunchly defended and the Ukrainian army has been transformed into a formidable force, partly thanks to close partnership with the US and other Western allies.

In contrast, the Russian military has shown poor strategic thinking and organisation. The political system behind it has proved incapable of learning from its mistakes. Nevertheless, the West will have to prepare for the next phase of Russia’s disastrous war, write Liana Fick and Michael Kimmage in a major analysis for Foreign Affairs.

War is always unpredictable, and this was the case here. Many expected a rapid decline of Ukraine, but these predictions have been proven wrong. However, Russia seems to be on the road to defeat. And what kind of defeat will it be? There are three possible scenarios, each of which would have different implications for policy makers in the West and in Ukraine.

Scenario one: Russian surrender

The first and least likely scenario is that Russia accepts its defeat by accepting a negotiated settlement on Ukraine’s terms. For this scenario to materialise, many things would have to change, as there is no diplomatic dialogue between the conflicting parties and the West.

Given the Russian aggression and the scale of the crime, it is unlikely that Ukraine would accept any diplomatic solution other than a complete Russian surrender.

Moreover, a Russian government – under Putin or his successor – could try to hold on to Crimea and seek peace elsewhere. To save face in its own backyard, the Kremlin could claim that it is preparing for a long game in Ukraine, leaving open the possibility of further military incursions.

The Russians could blame their failure on NATO and the sending of arms, but not on Ukraine’s strength. For such an approach to survive within the Russian regime, the hardliners, including Putin himself, would have to be marginalised. Difficult, but not impossible.

The FA, however, points out that such an outcome is unlikely as long as Vladimir Putin is in power, as his approach to the war has been maximalist from the outset.

Scenario two: Escalation and defeat

Another scenario of a Russian defeat would involve failure in the middle of an escalation. The Kremlin would make a nihilistic effort to prolong the war in Ukraine, and would also launch sabotage operations in countries supporting Kiev, as well as in Ukraine itself.

In the worst case, Russia could decide to launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine. The war would then lead to a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia. This move would make Russia a unique and unacceptable threat in the eyes of the West. Crossing the nuclear threshold could lead to NATO’s conventional involvement in the war, which would hasten Russia’s defeat on the ground.

Scenario three: The fall of the regime

The third and final scenario, which would lead to the end of the war, would mean a defeat after the fall of the Russian regime, with the key battles being fought not in Ukraine but in the corridors of the Kremlin or on the streets of Moscow.

Putin holds all the power in his hands, but his efforts to continue fighting a war that he has lost could put his regime on thin ice.

Although Putin has brought political stability to Russia in the post-Soviet years, its citizens could turn against him if the war causes widespread misery. The fall of his regime could mean an immediate end to the war, which Russia will not be able to fight with the domestic chaos that follows.

A coup followed by civil war would be a repeat of what happened after the Bolshevik takeover in 1917, which precipitated Russia’s withdrawal from World War I.

Escalation tools

If he decides to escalate the conflict, Putin could use chemical or biological weapons, he could also decide to destroy energy lines or seabed infrastructure, or launch cyber-attacks on Western financial institutions.

Nuclear weapons would be Putin’s last move. Putin mentioned Hiroshima and Nagasaki in his speech on 30 September. If Russia used tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Kiev would not surrender. The Ukrainians know that a Russian occupation of their territory would be tantamount to disappearing, but that was not the case with Japan in 1945, which was then losing the war. Russia, which is a nuclear power, has also been losing the war since the end of 2022.

Moreover, the consequences of a nuclear attack would be catastrophic, and it would not help the Russians on the battlefield either. Moreover, such a move by Russia would provoke international anger. At the moment, three countries have not condemned the Russian invasion – Brazil, China and India – but not a single country has really supported Russia. In November, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke out against nuclear threats, and if Putin does not heed this warning, he could be left completely isolated, N1 Croatia reports