Russia turns history into a weapon: Warning of hybrid pressure on NATO’s northern flank

Russia has transformed the manipulation of history from a symbolic policy of memory into a deliberate instrument of state power, aimed at delegitimising neighbouring countries and preparing the ground for political, hybrid, and potentially military pressure on NATO’s northern flank.

This assessment was made by Patrik Oksanen, a strategic adviser at the Centre for Societal Security at the Swedish Defence University, in a recent analysis that highlights Finland as an early warning case of Russia’s broader strategy in Northern Europe.

According to Oksanen, over the past decade the Kremlin has turned history into an active tool of security policy.

“History, Russian patriotism and imperial ambitions have merged into a single whole. What we are witnessing today is not merely memory politics, but weaponised history that directly serves Moscow’s strategic ambitions,” he writes.

Finland and Sweden in the crosshairs

Finland and Sweden are at the centre of this narrative offensive. Russia increasingly portrays them through selective and distorted historical narratives as:

“Nazi collaborators” during World War II,

morally compromised states,

NATO satellites lacking real sovereignty.

Experts stress that these narratives deliberately ignore key historical facts, including the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939 and Sweden’s complex and constrained wartime neutrality.

One of the most alarming elements is the spread of false genocide accusations, including claims that Finland operated gas chambers in Karelia or systematically committed atrocities against Soviet prisoners of war—allegations that historians have categorically dismissed as fabricated.

According to Oksanen, the objective is clear: if Finland can be framed as historically criminal, any future Russian aggression can be justified as “defensive.”

A Familiar Pattern Across Europe

The analysis underlines that the same model has previously been applied against Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland, following a consistent pattern:

historical delegitimisation,

normalisation of hostility,

creation of moral asymmetry to justify political and military pressure.

In the Baltic states and Poland, Russia promotes the narrative of “Soviet liberation” while denying occupation. In the Nordic region, it selectively reframes World War II history to sow doubt, division and mistrust within NATO.

Warning signs not to be ignored

Experts identify several key indicators of history-based influence operations:

a sudden increase in historical accusations in Russian state media,

dubious “archival discoveries” promoted by Russian institutions,

official publications such as the Russian Foreign Ministry’s so-called “Black Book” targeting Finland and Sweden,

diplomatic and legal pressure,

vandalism of monuments and manipulation of historical symbols.

These actions, the analysis warns, are not isolated incidents but part of a preparatory phase for broader political and strategic pressure.

A Threat to NATO Cohesion

Oksanen cautions that Moscow’s ultimate objective is not the immediate dismantling of NATO, but the gradual erosion of Alliance cohesion.

“If certain countries are portrayed as historically ‘problematic’, allied solidarity can quietly weaken,” he notes.

What NATO should do?

According to experts, NATO must:

recognise history as a security vector,

respond collectively to historical attacks against any member state,

integrate historical manipulation into counter-hybrid threat doctrines,

invest in historical education, open archives and proactive strategic communication.

“If history is left uncontested, a part of our security architecture remains exposed,” Oksanen concludes.

The full report is available here:

https://mpf.se/psychological-defence-agency/publications/archive/2025-12-11-history-as-a-battlefield—russias-information-war-against—-finland-2025