Russia’s arctic dream falters as it fails to service its own ports

Russia lacks the capacity to properly service and maintain its Arctic ports, undermining Moscow’s plans to turn the Northern Sea Route into a full-fledged transport corridor, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.

In a statement published on Jan. 6, the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine said ports along the Northern Sea Route will require dredging of roughly 60 million cubic meters over the next five years alone, with similar work needed at ports in other regions of Russia.

“Russia’s Arctic ambitions are running into a basic infrastructure bottleneck,” the agency said, noting that Moscow previously relied on foreign contractors with the necessary fleets and technologies to carry out large-scale dredging projects. Western sanctions have effectively cut off that option, while Russia has failed to develop adequate domestic alternatives.

Plans announced by Russian authorities to design and build dredging vessels at the Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg remain largely declarative and have produced no practical results, the intelligence service said.

According to the agency’s data, Russia managed to dredge only about 2.2 million cubic meters across all its ports in 2025 using its own capabilities – a volume it described as marginal compared with stated needs and insufficient to change the situation systemically.

Moscow is now theoretically counting on China’s involvement in developing northern port infrastructure, the statement said, but Beijing’s interests diverge sharply from Russia’s. China is focused on uninterrupted transit along the entire Northern Sea Route rather than developing individual Russian ports as logistics hubs.

“In the coming years, this means a simple reality: large vessels will pass by without stopping,” the agency said.

Even if China agrees to participate in dredging operations, decisions on where and which ports would be serviced would be made in Beijing, not Moscow, according to the assessment. That would deprive Russia of control over spatial development, limit its ability to support specific regions and deepen its dependence on external actors.

Overall, the Foreign Intelligence Service said the situation highlights a systemic gap between Russia’s declared Arctic ambitions and its real capabilities.