Why Russia is the prime suspect in the Olympics sabotage

Russia will be one of the prime suspects in Friday’s attacks on the French rail network, as suspicions circulate that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted a chance to humiliate French President Emmanuel Macron.

French intelligence sources have also suggested it may have been the work of left-wing radicals, while Israel’s foreign minister claimed the sabotage was carried out by Iran.

But as of Friday afternoon, it remained unclear who the perpetrators were, with theories coming from many quarters and the evidence not very convincing.

The French authorities have deployed a comprehensive high-tech security system for the Olympics, with Reaper drones in the sky and AI cameras on the ground to watch for suspicious activity.

But Friday’s attack suggests they paid far less attention to the major rail lines, which were sabotaged by old-fashioned arson methods rather than cyberattacks.

The perpetrators had a good knowledge of railroads and were most likely trying to cause as much disruption as possible while avoiding loss of life.

There were five incidents on the SNCF rail network, all of which involved electronic or interlocking systems. French media report that cable bundles in the network were burnt or severed.

As a result, around 50 percent of trains in the north and east of France were not running on Friday morning and TVG’s high-speed network was also paralyzed. The outage is expected to last until the weekend.

The attacks took place in the early hours of the morning, when no trains were running on the high-speed network, and were carried out in such a way that the control centers immediately noticed the damage and shut down the system.

France has yet to accuse any group or country of sabotage, but many will immediately point the finger at Moscow. Other possible suspects include terrorist groups, left-wing radicals and environmental activists.

The SNCF boss described the arsonists as a “bunch of madmen”, but did not give any details of their identity. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said the attacks were “prepared and coordinated” and promised to “find and punish” the saboteurs.

“We are definitely in a conflict situation with Russia, and Russia will definitely do nothing, and that is an understatement, to contribute to the success of these Olympic Games,” said Jean de Gliniasty, the former French ambassador to Moscow in an interview with French broadcaster LCI.

In April, French President Macron said there was “no doubt, including information” that the Russian leadership intended to disrupt or damage the Games.

Around the same time, a Macron official warned, “There is a reinforcement from Russia that we have been seeing for several months.”

A security source said on Friday that no “dubious evidence” had yet been found to prove whether the rail sabotage was the result of a Russian hybrid attack.

They added: “Our general assumption is that activity by Russia and its supporters is increasing.” This will increase both the severity and frequency of “gray zone” incidents aimed at deterring and dissuading Ukrainian supporters.

However, a French intelligence source told AFP news agency that the sabotage was similar to previous incidents involving the far left. “The modus operandi – arson attacks on facilities – is similar to what the far-left has done in the past,” the source said.

Meanwhile, Israel blames Iran, its arch-enemy in the Middle East, which continues to finance and support Hamas and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

“Based on Israeli information, the Iranians are planning terrorist attacks against the Israeli delegation and all participants in the Olympic Games. Stronger preventive measures should be taken to thwart their plot,” he added.

France’s diplomatic and military support for Ukraine has put it in the crosshairs of a new Russian campaign against Europe known as “hybrid warfare”, which includes sabotage, arson, cyberattacks and other attempts to destabilize Western democracy.

And there is already a precedent for Russia launching inflammatory attacks on businesses and infrastructure in Europe.

When a mysterious fire broke out at the Diehl arms factory in Berlin in May, German investigators initially assumed that it was an accident – even though the Diehl Group was part of the supply chain providing the Ukrainian armed forces with weapons.

They have since received information from a NATO member state that strongly suggests that it was indeed a Russian sabotage attack.

Last month, pro-Russian arsonists in east London targeted a company with trade links to Ukraine. In response to the attack, the British government expelled the Russian defense attaché.