Why Putin’s next target could be the Balkans

Russia could inflame tensions in the Balkans and create a new war for the West to diffuse if it prevails in its war with Ukraine, Kosovo’s top diplomat told NatSec Daily.

In an interview at Kosovo’s embassy across from the National Cathedral in Washington, Foreign Minister DONIKA GËRVALLA-SCHWARZ warned that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s territorial ambitions don’t stop at the Ukrainian border — and that Ukraine’s victory against Russia would ensure stability in the long-troubled Balkans.

“Putin’s strategy is to keep the West distracted with various conflicts,” she said. “So another war in the Balkans would be very welcomed by Russia.”

Kosovo in particular is an alluring target for Putin, she added, because the country’s prosperity undermines his argument that the West cannot help former Eastern bloc countries. NATO and Washington are celebrated for stopping ethnic violence and genocide in the region following the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

“Putin speaks every week about Kosovo,” she said. “It’s not about the geopolitical importance of Kosovo, but it is about the fact that Kosovo is a success story of the West, a success story of the United States of America, it’s a success story of NATO, a success story of the European Western countries.”

Gërvalla-Schwarz’s warning comes as other European nations in Russia’s backyard have publicly voiced their concerns about Putin’s growing aggression toward its neighbors. Last week, Sweden said Putin was eyeing the strategically significant Baltic island of Gotland. Finnish Prime Minister PETTERI ORPO warned Russia is already attacking its neighbors using hybrid tactics. And the European Union also condemned Russia for removing buoys delineating its river border with Estonia.

At the same time, Serbia’s far-right government is growing closer with Moscow and is promoting denialism about the Bosnian genocide. Belgrade launched a lobbying campaign to try and defeat a U.N. resolution remembering the slaughter of 8,000 Bosniak men and boys in the town of Srebrenica in 1995, one of the most infamous atrocities of the Balkans Wars. The resolution ultimately passed in the general assembly last week.

Both sides of the Atlantic have worried that Serbia could attempt to retake Kosovo, as the country’s leader ALEKSANDAR VUČIĆ flirts with rhetoric about a “greater Serbia” encompassing Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Skirmishes occurred between the two sides at Kosovo’s northern border in September. The Russian paramilitary group Wagner also maintains a presence in the region and has trained Serb paramilitary groups in the past.

In a statement to NatSec Daily, the State Department said it supports dialogue facilitated by the EU “as the path to achieve a peaceful and productive relationship between the two countries.”

“Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and its malign efforts in the Western Balkans underscore the urgency and importance of these priorities,” the statement continued.

Serbia and Russia, for their part, have denied Kosovo’s allegations and maintain they are committed to resolving tensions peacefully. Serbia’s embassy in Washington said in a statement to NatSec Daily “certain actors in the region are trying to create an untrue narrative to pursue their own political interests” and said Serbia “is resolutely opposed to any regional conflict.”

The Russian embassy in Washington did not respond to NatSec Daily’s requests for comment.

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