Bugajski for The Geopost: Who is next after Assad?

Janusz Bugajski, 13 December 2024 

The rapid collapse of Syria’s Assad regime demonstrates that no dictator is safe from ouster, especially if they are closely allied with an unreliable Russia. The clock is ticking for other Moscow partners and Putin himself may soon be one of the falling dominoes.

Of the handful of autocrats and aspiring dictators clustered around Putin, only two appear to be relatively immune from removal – in North Korea and China. Kim Jong Un continues his family dictatorship with an iron fist, where no dissent is tolerated. Pyongyang is dependent economically on China but less so on Russia although it has developed closer military ties as Putin desperately needs North Korea’s soldiers to fight against Ukraine while Pyongyang gains nuclear technology from Moscow. There is no indication that either the army or ruling party will conduct a coup against Kim and periodic brutal purges ensure that loyalty is ensured.

The stranglehold of China’s communist rulers is also unlikely to weaken unless the country experiences a major economic contraction. Xi Jinping could plausibly be replaced as President by the politburo if a major scapegoat is needed for any coming economic decline. But his fate is not tied directly to Putin. In fact, it is Moscow that is increasingly dependent on Beijing for investments and sanctions evasion. Xi’s fall could usher in either a more strident nationalism or a Chinese regime seeking more cordial relations with the West, and both would be bad news for the Kremlin. The former could demand land from Russia, while the latter would undercut the alliance with Moscow.

The Iranian clerical regime is most likely to suffer the negative fallout from Assad’s ouster, as it has lost a major regional proxy and its military supplies to Hamas and Hezbollah have been decimated by Israeli strikes. If the incoming Trump administration follows through on its threat to tighten sanctions and even hit Iranian military targets to prevent Tehran from deploying nuclear weapons, this could trigger an economic downturn and social revolts on a much bigger scale than previously witnessed.

In Belarus, Lukashenka is unlikely to outlast Putin, as he has voluntarily turned the country into a vassal state. As Russia weakens, it will be less capable of helping its closest allies. The one possibility is for Lukashenka to politically transform himself into a Belarusian nationalist, demand full independence from Moscow, and turn to the West. However, if he loosens the reigns over society the country’s large hidden opposition will become more emboldened.

Putin’s two main Danubian allies will also bear the consequences of a failing autocratic axis. Hungary’s Orban still needs elections even as his FIDESZ party seeks to gradually capture and control state institutions regardless of elections. In the most recent polls, FIDESZ’s popularity has dropped substantially to a mere 36%. Meanwhile, the opposition TISZA party has attained 47% of voter support. With early elections possible in 2025, Orban’s hold on power looks increasingly precarious given falling living standards and escalating corruption charges tied to Russia and China.

And then there is Serbia, Putin’s main outpost in the Balkans. Every major public protest against the regime brings Vućič’s ouster closer. He does not possess the effective internal terror apparatus of Lukashenka or Kim, even while Serbs are increasingly angered by the regime’s arrogance, corruption, and inability to ensure economic growth. Current public protests were triggered by a rail station roof collapse in Novi Sad that killed 15 people and the government’s lukewarm response. Demonstrators in Novi Sad, Belgrade, and other cities blame the deaths on rampant official corruption that resulted in sloppy renovation work and fear that other shady infrastructure deals with Chinese state companies will result in more civilian deaths. Vućič is again appealing to Serbian nationalism to save himself. He accuses foreign intelligence services of trying to unseat him as public protests spread, while claiming that he would not flee like Assad.

Indeed, it is far from certain that Moscow would even offer Vućič asylum, with Putin himself facing the domestic consequences of his war against Ukraine. Russia’s militarized economy stands on the verge of hyperinflation, a financial crash, and a precipitous fall in living standards that can trigger social unrest, regime implosion, and state collapse. Putin’s survival, like that of his fellow autocrats, will also be decided in the coming year.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and author of two new books: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture