What to watch at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit?

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are attending a two-day summit in China, where Xi Jinping will try to refine his vision of an alternative world order.

More than 20 leaders will gather in the northern port city of Tianjin from August 31 to September 1. China is hosting the annual summit, where regional security and trade issues will be discussed amid rising tensions with the West.

The summit is also an opportunity for China to present itself as the leader of the global South. Here’s what to look out for at this year’s summit.

1. Another “Putin and Xi show”

After a series of diplomatic talks on the war in Ukraine, including a summit with US President Donald Trump, all eyes will be on Putin when he meets with the Chinese leader.

“The SCO has become a kind of show for Putin and Xi,” Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told Radio Free Europe. “It’s less about the summit itself and more about the meetings on the sidelines.”

Both Beijing and Moscow see the organization, whose members include Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, as a means of opposing Western-led institutions.

They increasingly view the bloc as a kind of laboratory for coordinating common goals for Eurasia and beyond, and for reshaping the world order.

Putin will also turn the summit into a broader state visit to China, during which he will attend a high-profile military parade in Beijing on September 3 to mark the end of World War II.

2. Modi’s view of the West

The Indian prime minister is traveling to China for the first time in more than seven years. The visit comes at a time when Beijing and New Delhi are trying to ease tensions after deadly border clashes in 2020.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded a visit to New Delhi earlier this month, where he sought to capitalize on a new thaw in US-India relations triggered by renewed US sanctions and Trump’s calls for India to limit its purchases of Russian oil, of which it is the main buyer. The meeting between Modi and Xi could be followed by further measures, including the withdrawal of troops and the removal of certain trade and visa restrictions.

The Russian Embassy in New Delhi has already announced that it hopes for trilateral talks between Modi, Putin, and Xi.

3. “Partners and rivals”

When the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was founded in 2001, it was largely a Chinese initiative to cooperate with Central Asia, while at the same time trying to respect Moscow’s sensitivity to Beijing’s growing influence in the region.

“China and Russia are both partners and rivals,” Luca Anceschi, a professor of Eurasian studies at the University of Glasgow, told RFE/RL. “But as we see in Central Asia, they are much more partners than rivals.”

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This could create new complications for Central Asian countries as they strive to balance Beijing and Moscow in the SCO to avoid overdependence on either, while also offering some new opportunities for their authoritarian governments.

“A common set of authoritarian values is emerging in the region that could make life easier for Central Asian regimes,” Anceschi says.

4. Is further expansion on the horizon?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation expanded last year to include Belarus. Iran joined in 2023, while India and Pakistan joined in 2017.

In addition to ten full members, the SCO also has two observer states and 14 dialogue partners.

Although further expansion is not expected, special attention will be paid to Armenia and Azerbaijan. These regional rivals are already dialogue partners and have applied for full membership.

5. An organization in search of identity

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has found its value as a symbolic venue for leaders seeking to deepen partnerships and influence social and political norms in parts of the world outside the Western-dominated world order.

However, internal differences remain a weak point despite the SCO’s growing appeal. For example, during a meeting of the organization’s defense ministers in June, India refused to join a statement condemning Israeli attacks on Iran. New Delhi said this was because the declaration made no mention of the deadly attacks on Hindu tourists on April 22 in Indian Kashmir, which led to renewed clashes between India and Pakistan.

” With the United States putting increasing pressure on China, India, and Russia, this summit will test whether the SCO can function as a cohesive organization or whether it will remain a fragmented platform driven primarily by national interests,” Junis Sharifli, a nonresident fellow with the China Global South project, told RFE/RL./RSE/