US says China’s halt of arms-control talks undermines strategic stability

The United States called China’s decision to suspend nascent arms-control talks with Washington “unfortunate,” noting that China has opted not to engage in efforts to manage strategic risks and prevent costly arms races.

“We think this approach undermines strategic stability. It increases the risk of arms race dynamics. We have made efforts to bolster the defense of our allies and partners in the Indo Pacific, and we will continue to make those efforts in the face of Chinese threats to their security,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters during a briefing on Wednesday.

The Chinese foreign ministry announced on Wednesday that Beijing has decided to hold off on discussions with the U.S. regarding a new round of consultations on arms control and non-proliferation.

This decision is a protest against Washington’s arms sales to Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.

“China has chosen to follow Russia’s lead in asserting that engagement on arms control can’t proceed when there are other challenges in the bilateral relationship,” Miller added.

On November 6, 2023, officials from the U.S. and China convened for a new strategic risk reduction discussion at the State Department.

Leading the U.S. delegation was Mallory Stewart, assistant secretary for the State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence and Stability (ADS). The Chinese delegation was headed by Sun Xiaobo, director general for arms control at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with other civilian officials also in attendance.

The U.S. has proposed three measures to China aimed at reducing strategic risks related to missile launches or potential missile launches. These include establishing a strategic crisis hotline between their respective Strategic Commands, implementing space deconfliction measures, and adopting missile launch notifications, a practice observed by China with Russia.

China’s decision to halt the new round of strategic risk reduction talks was described as not a significant loss to the U.S., as Chinese officials did not propose any initiatives during the November discussions, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The source also noted that similar talks between the U.S. and China under previous administrations had yielded no tangible results.

“China stands ready to maintain communication with the U.S. on international arms control issues in line with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian on Wednesday.

“But the U.S. must respect China’s core interests and create necessary conditions for dialogue and exchange,” he said.

Some former U.S. intelligence officials doubt the effectiveness of ongoing government-to-government engagements and exchanges. They argue that Beijing’s recent suspension of risk reduction talks in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan serves as a convenient pretext for China to persist with its internal nuclear arms buildup and external proliferation.

James Fanell, a retired U.S. Navy captain and former director of intelligence and information operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, commented that “talks can and will be held when the Chinese Communist Party changes its nefarious actions and destabilizing behavior.”

In a report mandated by Congress last October, the Pentagon revealed that China was developing its nuclear arsenal more quickly than the U.S. had previously estimated.

As of May 2023, China had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, with projections indicating they could exceed 1,000 by 2030.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the United States currently has about 3,700 nuclear warheads, fewer than Russia’s estimated 4,500.

The U.S. switched its diplomatic recognition from the government in Taipei to the government in Beijing in 1979.

Since then, the U.S. policy has maintained that differences between the two sides should be settled peacefully and in accordance with the will of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. The United States acknowledges but has never endorsed Beijing’s sovereignty claim over Taiwan.

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