US Intelligence Warns of ‘Ugly Next Few Weeks’ for Ukraine

Russia’s military failures in Ukraine, combined with crippling economic sanctions, are likely to spur Russian President Vladimir Putin to apply heavier and more indiscriminate force in his war against Kyiv, according to the latest public assessment by U.S. intelligence officials.

The officials painted a bleak picture for Ukraine Tuesday during testimony before Congress on the U.S. intelligence community’s annual Worldwide Threat Assessment, warning that despite mounting a fierce and often effective resistance, a growing number of cities will face growing desperation.

Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv could run out of food and water in as little as 10 days, they said.

It will be “an ugly next few weeks,” CIA Director William Burns said, adding that in the most likely scenario, Putin “doubles down with scant regard for civilian casualties.”

“(Putin’s) been stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years,” Burns warned, calling Ukraine “a matter of deep personal conviction” for the Russian leader.

“Putin is determined to dominate and control Ukraine, to shape its orientation,” he added.

U.S. intelligence officials, like their counterparts at the Pentagon in recent days, described growing frustration by Russian forces reaching all the way up to Putin, who expected Kyiv to fall in one or two days.

#Russia's #Putin "He's been proven wrong on every count" per @CIA's Burns "Those assumptions have proven to be profoundly flawed over the last 12 days"

— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) March 8, 2022

Instead, Russian forces have seen their incursions stall while suffering between 2,000 and 4,000 casualties, all while trying to carry out what the U.S. officials described as an ill-constructed plan.

“They are facing significantly more resistance from Ukrainians than they expected and experiencing significant military shortcomings,” Avril Haines, director of National Intelligence, told lawmakers.

Still, there are few signs Putin is willing to back down.

Putin “perceives this is a war that he cannot afford to lose,” Haines told lawmakers.

“What is unclear at this stage is whether Russia will continue to pursue maximalist plans to capture all or most of Ukraine, which we assess would require more resources even as the Russian military has begun to loosen its rules of engagement,” she said.

Haines further warned it remains equally unclear that spending more resources on Ukraine will get Putin the result he wants, predicting that even if Russia is able to topple Ukraine’s government, Russian forces will face a “persistent and significant” insurgency.

#Putin "He has created a system in which his own circle of advisors is narrower & narrower" per @CIA's Burns

"#COVID has made that even narrower" he says "& it's a system in which it's not proven career enhancing for ppl to question or challenge his judgment"

— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) March 8, 2022

Yet despite a Russian invasion that has featured what they described as repeated stumbles and setbacks, U.S. intelligence officials told lawmakers it would be a mistake to dismiss Putin as crazy.

“I think he’s far more insulated from other points of view,” Burns said. “That doesn’t make him crazy, but it makes him extremely difficult to deal with because of the hardening of his views over time and the narrowing of his inner circle.”

“When he says something, we should listen very, very carefully, maybe take him at his word,” said Lieutenant General Scott Bernier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, who said Putin is convinced he may hold an asymmetric advantage over the United States and NATO due to Russia’s efforts to grow and modernize its array of weapons, including its nuclear arsenal.

Pressed by lawmakers on Putin’s decision to place his nuclear deterrence forces on high alert, the U.S. intelligence officials said the move was “very unusual.”

But they also said that the U.S. has yet to observe any movement by Russian forces to indicate a change in posture.

“He is effectively signaling that he’s attempting to deter” more U.S. and Western support for Ukraine, Haines said./VOA

#Putin decision to put #Russia|n nuke forces on heightened alert "was very unusual" per @ODNIgov's Haines "We obviously take it ver seriously"

— Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) March 8, 2022