The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (FISU) said on Friday that it believed the Kremlin was preparing a large-scale provocation with “significant human casualties,” aimed at undermining ongoing U.S.-led efforts to mediate a peace agreement between the two countries.
Warning that its intelligence suggested a place of worship in the Russian Federation or in Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine was the most likely target, FISU said it expected a “armed provocation by Russian special services” to take place during Orthodox Christmas celebrations on January 7 or around that date.
The FISU statement continued, noting that after Moscow’s claim on Monday that Kyiv had launched an “attack on Vladimir Putin’s residence,” the Kremlin began spreading “new and falsified reasons,” laying the groundwork for a transition from manipulative influence to an armed provocation.
Highlighting that such an attack could be carried out “under a foreign flag,” something it said is “entirely consistent with the modus operandi of Russian special services,” FISU concluded with an appeal to the media “to question and fully verify materials published by the Kremlin” in order to avoid the inadvertent spread of Russian disinformation.
The warning from Ukrainian intelligence comes just one day after the occupying authorities in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s Kherson region accused Kyiv of carrying out a drone strike on a café and hotel in the Black Sea town of Khorly, killing around 27 people.
Ukrainian authorities have categorically denied any involvement in the alleged attack.
On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Ukrainian drones had attacked one of Putin’s official residences in Valdai, which Ukraine later denied. The CIA is also said to have concluded that Ukraine did not attempt to strike Putin’s residence, but had targeted a military facility in the same region.

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