The Times: Putin’s failed invasion could benefit Taiwan

Is the Chinese leader ready to attack Taiwan in the future, as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine shows him what cannot be achieved, writes The Times.

After the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the question arose whether China could act in Taiwan while the world is preoccupied with Putin’s attack on Kyiv, especially because of the meeting between the Russian and Chinese presidents on the eve of the actual war, writes The Times.

Even if this has not happened, what Chinese leader Xi Jinping will say about Taiwan at next week’s Party Congress will be seen through the prism of a future war in Asia, the article continues.

Beijing’s overreaction to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan a few months ago seemed like some kind of rehearsal.

Since Chinese nationalists argue that no option is off the table regarding national unification with Taiwan, they will want Xi, who is seeking a third presidential term at the congress, to go even further.

Western armament

However, The Times questions whether the Chinese leader is ready for this, as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine shows him what cannot be achieved. Russia wanted to depose the regime in Kiev in a few days, and Beijing is surely planning the same for Taiwan.

Taiwan’s resistance, long underestimated by the Chinese military, must also be taken into account. Now it is also happening under the influence of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia, which even China could not have foreseen before.

Crucially, China could not have foreseen such an enthusiastic response from the US and its support for Ukraine. After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Beijing believed that the US would now avoid costly and long-term military engagements, so its support for Taiwan would be largely rhetorical.

But the strong military support to Kiev, not only from the US but from NATO allies and the UK, has shown Xi that the West is capable of striking blows against an aggressor.

The Biden administration recently approved a sixth military package for Taiwan, a $1.1 billion arms sale including 60 Harpoon missiles.

The Americans are trying to implement a strategy to deter China from attacking.

Phases of war

Taiwanese military analysts note that Ukraine is handicapped by the long lead time for Western arms deliveries, and point out that Taiwan, as an island surrounded by a hostile navy, is even more vulnerable, so the arms buildup has already begun.

The Times questions how long Taiwan would hold out and whether the US would abandon its position of insecurity in the event of war, adding that Beijing seems to be adjusting its battle plans in line with Putin’s mistakes.

The article added that judging by the military exercises, Xi is likely to launch missile and air strikes to paralyse the government and military command, followed by cyber attacks and naval operations or an economic blockade. The next stage would be an attempt to counter US forces and military aid to the island, after which fighting would probably be suspended to offer Taiwan the option of surrendering and to follow a diplomatic approach to the US to reach an agreement.

However, despite the rapid modernisation of its military, China has not fought a war since 1979. Also, because of Putin’s mistakes in Ukraine and Syria, Xi may be losing confidence in his Kremlin friend, as well as in the ability of his own generals, which is what Taiwan is hoping for, the paper concludes./The Times/