The risk of escalation in the conflict with Russia: Is Europe ready?

A group of defense and security experts who gathered last month in Whitehall—the seat of the British government—have delivered a troubling assessment: the United Kingdom and its European allies are not prepared for a potential war that could erupt within the next few years.

The conference was organized by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), one of the most prestigious security studies centers based in London.

Those in attendance included current and former members of the armed forces, government and NATO officials, academics, and representatives of the defense industry.

According to them, intelligence assessments indicate that Russia is seriously preparing for the possibility of a direct conflict with Europe.

Experts stress that deterring war is only possible if Europe convinces Moscow that it would be capable of winning such a conflict.

Hybrid war has already begun

There is a growing consensus that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against the West through sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and incursions into NATO airspace. Experts cite GPS jamming in the Baltic region, drones near airports, and attacks on critical infrastructure in several European countries—actions that have been linked to Russian intelligence services, although Moscow consistently denies involvement, CNN reports.

“European societies are beginning to feel fear, but governments are still hesitant to openly acknowledge that this is hybrid warfare,” said Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King’s College London.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that Russia could be ready to use military force against the alliance within five years. A similar warning has been issued by German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, emphasizing that German intelligence assesses that by 2029, Moscow is keeping open the option of war against NATO.

Meanwhile, the Baltic states are even more alarmed: according to their assessments, a Russian attack could occur within three years. Studies by the Belfer Center at Harvard University mention the years 2027–2028 as recurring scenarios in expert forecasts.

NATO has drawn up contingency plans for the defense of the Baltic states, but experts warn that these plans are not backed by real capabilities.

“There is a plan on paper, but governments are not taking the necessary steps to implement it. We are planning on foundations that do not exist,” said Jack Watling, a senior researcher at RUSI.

Even in the United Kingdom, a strategic defense review has identified the need to strengthen the army, reserves, civil defense, infrastructure, and industry. However, according to General Richard Barrons, at the current pace Britain would need around 10 years to prepare for war, while the threat could materialize within 3–5 years.

The “peace dividend” is coming to an end

After 1945, Europe experienced decades of relative peace, reducing defense spending and investing more in social welfare. This strategy was also supported by the dominant role of the United States as the guarantor of European security.

But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increasingly skeptical stance of the United States toward its commitments in Europe have fundamentally changed the reality. Today, 31 out of 32 NATO member states are expected to meet the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense, up from just six countries in 2021.

However, raising the target to 5% of GDP by 2035 is being viewed with skepticism, due to economic pressures and a lack of political will to explain to citizens the need for sacrifices.

Eurobarometer surveys show that 78% of Europeans are concerned about the EU’s security over the next five years. Nevertheless, willingness to accept concrete measures varies from country to country.

In Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, the threat is perceived as direct, while Nordic countries have revived the concept of “total defense,” in which every citizen and institution has a role in the event of war.

Experts emphasize that citizens’ trust in state institutions is key to readiness for sacrifice.

“If people believe the state works for them, they are more willing to give something back,” analysts stress.

In conclusion, the experts’ message is clear: Europe can no longer afford the luxury of neglecting defense. The time for warnings has passed—now concrete action is required. /TheGeoPost.