The new government of Montenegro: Another step closer to Belgrade and Moscow

At first glance, the formation of Montenegro’s new government appears to be a victory for the pro-Western forces in the country. However, the new coalition is ultimately supported by groups with close ties to both Serbia and Russia.

The formation of the new coalition government in Montenegro was confirmed on October 31st after long negotiations between the partners and under the official chairmanship of the leader of the “Europe Now Movement” (PES) Milojko Spajic. This was agreed five months after the early parliamentary elections in June. It marked the end of a phase of negotiations to form a government in which the prospect of new parliamentary elections and even more instability was at the forefront. Numerous media outlets claimed that the new Montenegrin government was “pro-EU” and that “a new phase of stabilization” was in order. But do such claims obscure what is actually happening in the country?

Spajic has stated that his government will focus on economic issues and necessary judicial reforms and that he will try to move away from the ethnic and religious disputes that have characterized the Montenegrin political landscape in recent years. The biggest steps towards the reforms required for EU membership and a role as a “good partner” within NATO were the new government’s foreign policy commitments. However, a closer look reveals that contrary to the narrative that the PES is a “pro-EU” and “centrist” movement, the strength of pro-Serbian and pro-Russian political parties lies in the country that joined NATO in 2017. The coalition “For the Future of Montenegro” (ZBCG), without whose support the formation of the government would not be possible, was given the post of Speaker of Parliament, with the further promise that it could receive four ministerial posts in the near future.

The composition of the new government and the support it guarantees also clearly show the considerable influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) and the authoritarian President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, on political developments in Montenegro. Consequently, it is likely that the new prime minister as well as the country’s president, Jakov Milatović – who both came onto the political scene as PSC cadres and ardent supporters of the “Grand Litia” that led PSC-led protests against the “Law on Religious Freedoms” in 2019 – will primarily serve the interests of those who brought them from obscurity to the most powerful political positions.

However, Spajić has gone to great lengths to reassure Montenegro’s US and EU partners that they can do business with his government. However, the Prime Minister’s political fate depends largely on the continued support of the ZBCG coalition, which includes a number of key figures from the now-defunct Democratic Front (DF). The leading figure within the ZBCG is the new speaker of the Montenegrin parliament Andrija Mandić, a Chetnik “Vojvoda” (Duke) who has close ties to the Kremlin. He also vocally opposed Montenegro’s independence and NATO membership. In addition, before his conviction was overturned after the parliamentary elections in August 2020, he was found guilty of involvement in the alleged Russian-backed coup in October 2016. A combative, divisive yet shrewd political actor, Mandić is likely to be more comfortable with “street politics”. However, he is now chairman of the country’s parliament. However, he is likely to be quieter in the coming year as the ZBCG has its sights set on the future minister posts.

The latest battleground in the “Serbianization” of Montenegro is the upcoming census. The Montenegrin ruling elite sees this process as an opportunity to change the fragile balance of national and ethnic determination in favor of those who declare themselves Serbs. Even if the results show only a few percentage points more compared to the 2011 census, pro-Serb political forces have a powerful propaganda tool with which they would legitimize their (ultimate) desire to call a new referendum on whether Montenegro should remain independent or rejoin Serbia. For those who do not follow Montenegrin politics closely, this may seem strange. But developments over the last three years show that anything is possible. Moreover, the supporters of the Serbian world, who are firmly convinced that the process is irreversible, will patiently wait for their moment. In a feverish geopolitical environment where international attention is focused elsewhere, they believe they may be close. In fact, Aleksandar Vučić has stated that the outcome of the upcoming census is more important to him than the results of the elections in Montenegro.

Currently, however, the rhetoric of the new government is that the orientation of Montenegro’s Euro-Atlantic foreign policy remains unchanged and that there are few or no concerns in this direction, at least in the short term. However, the initial aim of the ZBCG and its political allies is to take control of the levers of power, the state institutions.

The appointment of Andrija Mandić as Speaker of the Assembly was an important step in this direction. Indeed, Mandić has not only been able to define the nature and dynamics of the legislative agenda, but has also declared – somewhat unconvincingly – that Montenegro remains on the steady course of Euro-Atlanticism.

However, it would hardly be an exaggeration to suggest that he is merely paying lip service to Montenegro’s EU and NATO partners, all in an effort to assuage US concerns.

So what about Montenegro’s Western partners?

In the cold light of day, one must conclude that – by trying to bring Aleksandar Vučić to the western flank – they have unwittingly facilitated the de facto takeover of Montenegro by pro-Serb forces with well-documented links to Moscow. After Montenegro was admitted to NATO in 2017, the West has largely turned a blind eye to Vučić’s neo-colonial appetite for Montenegro, which has led to real dangers not only for Montenegro, but also for Bosnia – Herzegovina and Kosovo. History teaches us that appeasing an autocrat never leads to peace and stability. To the detriment of its own long-term interests, the West has stood by for too long while pro-Serb parties have consolidated control of Montenegro, further destabilizing a country already plagued by deep political divisions. Moreover, they have placed the local, Western-oriented political and intellectual elites – some of whom argue that the West underestimates the dangers of Russian efforts to impose their agenda in the region – in a situation of great anxiety, fearing abandonment and betrayal by their Western allies. Many cling to the hope, despite evidence to the contrary, that these allies will realize sooner rather than later that a change in policy is urgently needed./The Geopost/