The Balkans, not at the center of interest at Munich Security Conference

Like every other year in February, Munich is the scene of many discussions about the current security situation in the world for three consecutive days. The topics of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) this year were, as expected, the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. These two crisis points thematically dominated most of the discussions during the three-day conference.

An opportunity for bilateral talks

Besides the public discussions, the MSC is known since the Cold War era for behind-the-scenes talks among government representatives who usually keep their distance from each other in public. The significant concentration of important participants and the mazes of the luxury hotel hosting the conference, provide opportunities for more intimate discussions away from the curious eyes of the media representatives.

This is also known to the participants from the Western Balkans, for whom the meeting in Munich is a crucial gathering at the beginning of the political year. This year, the presidents and governments of all countries created after the dissolution of Yugoslavia were once again at the conference, but except for Macedonian President Stevo Pendarovski and his Montenegrin counterpart Jakov Milatović, they did not participate in the public panels themselves.

Leaders of Western Balkan countries boasted numerous bilateral meetings: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić met with British and Chinese Foreign Ministers, David Cameron and Wang Yi, the delegation of the U.S. Senate, and the unofficial host, Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, whom he invited to visit Belgrade. As reported by journalists in Munich, Vučić complained to everyone about the position of Serbs in Kosovo.

At the same time, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti was in the Bavarian metropolis and, according to a statement from his office, in a conversation with representatives of the U.S. Senate, he accused official Belgrade of the recent problems arising from the decision to ban the dinar. Jeanne Shaheen, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said during a panel on the Balkans that she spoke with Vučić and Kurti and told them that “both sides need to move”.

Sarajevo needs reforms

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković did not deal with Serbia and Kosovo but with his favorite topic when on the international stage: Croatian support for Bosnia and Hercegovina on its path to the European Union. At the same time, in one of the panels, a member of the Bosnia and Hercegovina presidency, Denis Bećirović, called on Brussels to open negotiations with Bosnia and Hercegovina for full EU membership in March.

The German Government representative for the Western Balkans, Manual Sarrazin, told Deutsche Welle on the sidelines of the conference that the opening of negotiations now depends on the coalition in Sarajevo.

“The coalition has sent cautious signals of progress when it comes to reforms to enable us to follow this path positively, but we also need to see concrete results on the ground,” Sarrazin said. In other words: you still have to do something if you want us to push you. Sarrazin also linked the issue of EU accession to the Western Balkans with the issue of stability and security, especially in light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

EU accession as a security guarantee

During various discussions at the MSC, accession to NATO and the European Union was emphasized in some cases for Western Balkan countries as a guarantee for peace and security. However, the road to the European Union is not easy, complained Macedonian President Stevo Pendarovski, who constantly emphasized Bulgaria’s absurd blockade of accession negotiations. But the panel also discussed the problems of Montenegro and Croatia, which have not yet resolved their border disputes, which could be a crucial circumstance for Montenegro’s aspirations for EU membership.

Pendarovski sees the problem of blocked negotiations exclusively as a problem of the European Union. Sarrazin is also aware of this.

“If in the Western Balkans the European Union shows that it is unable to solve problems, how seriously will they take us when it comes to much larger global problems,” Sarrazin told Deutsche Welle.

He pointed out that Miroslav Lajčák, the EU’s special commissioner for negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo, was also in Munich. But he said that “there is nothing new to say at the moment” when it comes to progress in rapprochement between Belgrade and Pristina.

Destructive Russian influence in the Balkans

Analysts still see Russian influence in the Balkans as one of the biggest factors of destabilization.

“The way Russia is acting; it is not only acting against Ukraine. Russia is a destabilizing factor everywhere in the world. Russia is also trying to destabilize the Balkans… we do not need new meetings, but we need to immediately support Ukraine and give it what it needs,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in a panel on the role of European Union security.

Frauke Seebass, an analyst and Western Balkans specialist at the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP), told Deutsche Welle that the pro-Russian narrative in many parts of the Western Balkans, especially those under Belgrade’s influence, remains a significant security concern.

“Given the current geopolitical situation, proximity to Russia, and increasingly open disregard for core democratic values are also worrying. Public communication is increasingly anti-Western, and Russia is portrayed as the most important ally. Prospects for joining the EU have lost credibility, and thus their effectiveness over the years, further limiting the influence of Western actors,” said Seebass.

As for Montenegro, as President Milatović said, Russia’s reputation is on a downward trajectory.

“There is no sense for Russia’s activities in Ukraine. My opinion is that Russia has lost its influence in Montenegro,” Milatović said on a panel about the Balkans on Saturday evening.

The risk of war is still small

Even though it seems that the EU and the U.S. are making efforts to prevent the opening of new hot spots in the Western Balkans that would threaten the focus of energy on Ukraine, experts like Seebass do not see a direct risk of war conflicts in the Balkans.

“Given the increasing tensions, comparisons are often made with the 1990s before the wars in Yugoslavia began. However, the security situation is different: three Western Balkan countries that are not EU members are now NATO members, making war less likely,” said Seebass./euronews.al