The US overthrew two China-friendly leaders within two months

In a short succession, US President Donald Trump has eliminated two of Beijing's closest allies: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The first is now in handcuffs in a New York detention center after being kidnapped from Caracas by US special forces in a dramatic nighttime raid. The second was killed in a daring daytime bombing in central Tehran, on a joint US mission with Israel.

In the aftermath, China has responded angrily — condemning the capture or assassination of a sovereign leader and the apparent US attempt at regime change, while reaching out to Iran to express its friendship. But Beijing has done little more than watch as its geopolitical rival shakes up the rules of engagement.

For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, there is a tough pragmatism at play.

Ultimately, Iran ranks below his top priorities, including the stability of China’s relationship with the U.S., especially as he looks ahead to his upcoming summit with Trump in Beijing later this month. Experts said China may also welcome Washington’s attention and military resources being diverted from the Indo-Pacific.

“China is a good friend — lots of talk, little risk,” said Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Beijing will speak at the United Nations, but will avoid providing any significant support to Tehran.”

Although Beijing is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, the country's strategic importance to China is much more limited than many might assume. Military cooperation between the two has remained limited, and trade and investment flows have been eclipsed by those with several Gulf states, as Beijing seeks to maintain balanced ties across the Middle East.

China "sees no benefit in escalating tensions with the US over Iran," said William Yang, senior analyst at the Belgium-based think tank International Crisis Group.

“She still places more importance on maintaining the trade ceasefire and overall stability in bilateral relations with the US, so she will not want to jeopardize the positive momentum she has built with the Trump administration over the past year.”

China has long been Iran's most important source of diplomatic and economic support. In addition to buying the bulk of Iran's oil exports, Beijing has denounced what it calls "unilateral" U.S. sanctions imposed on Iran and supported Tehran's insistence that its nuclear program is peaceful.

In recent years, China has elevated Iran's global standing by including it in Beijing-backed groupings such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, expanding Tehran's diplomatic space at a time of Western isolation.

CNN reported that Chinese firms have also supplied chemicals used in Iran's missile program and helped build its domestic surveillance infrastructure. Beijing maintains that its trade with Iran complies with international law.

But China has consistently avoided direct involvement in its partners' conflicts, showing little appetite for intervening in Middle Eastern security matters beyond protecting its own assets.

This restraint was evident during Iran's conflict with Israel last year and subsequent US airstrikes, when China similarly offered only rhetorical support.

"China has long avoided presenting itself as a security guarantor for countries in the Global South, as US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq serves as a warning that deters Beijing from pursuing such an ambition," Yang said.

Beijing's relationship with Iran helps bolster its security and energy influence in the Middle East, but it has also lured other regional players like Iran's rival Saudi Arabia as it seeks to find a balance in the Middle East. In 2023, it played a role in brokering a rapprochement between the two.

However, there has been growing concern in Washington about the strengthening ties between China, Iran, Russia and North Korea. Leaders from all four countries gathered in Beijing last September for a surprising show of unity at a major military parade. And China, Russia and Iran have also held regular joint military exercises in recent years.

"Iran has been an early partner of the People's Republic of China, but it is distant and not existential or perhaps even critical to it," said Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, referring to China by its official name, the People's Republic of China.

But the limited support Beijing has offered Iran during two major military attacks over the past year raises questions about its reliability as a partner in times of difficulty.

"Others who work or want to work with China on security issues may rightly wonder whether Beijing will abandon them, especially if they are far from China - as happened in the case of Iran and Venezuela before," he said.

However, analysts agree that regardless of who succeeds Khamenei, Tehran is likely to maintain its ties with China, due to its economic influence.

Events in Iran also present China with some structural opportunities, said Zhu Zhaoyi, director of the Middle East Institute at Peking University's HSBC Business School.

"America's deep involvement in the military conflict in the Middle East inevitably diverts its resources and strategic attention, objectively limiting its ability to sustain pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific," Zhu wrote in an online article on Monday.

A continued campaign against Iran could also cut into America's arms supplies. Beijing has banned the export of rare earth elements for military use, which could make it harder for Washington to replenish its supplies. The elements are essential for a wide range of weapons, from missiles to fighter jets.

Short-term shocks

But short-term disruptions for China, especially on the energy front, remain inevitable.

Almost all of Iran's crude oil exports ended up in China, and they account for about 13% of China's total seaborne crude oil consumption, according to data analytics firm Kpler.

Energy trade between the two countries relies on a network of ships that filter Iranian oil to smaller independent refineries in coastal China, often through intermediary countries, according to analysts, who note that this practice keeps refining separate from Chinese state-owned enterprises that would be vulnerable to U.S. sanctions.

These so-called teapot refineries are known to operate what is often called a shadowy fleet of tankers that use stealth tactics to smuggle sanctioned goods. The Trump administration has sanctioned players suspected of being involved in both shipping and refining, while increasing pressure on Iran since last year.

Despite significant imports of Iranian oil, analysts believe the short-term impact should be manageable, as China has diversified its oil supply over the years.

Richard Jones, a crude oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told CNN that Iran has increased exports since mid-February and private refiners may still have access to Iranian oil through their floating storage vessels, most of which are off the coast of Singapore. In addition, they may also increase their intake of Russian crude, he added.

However, a bigger headache for Beijing appears to be the wider conflict in the region and major disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – a critical shipping route for crude oil from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Crude oil from the region accounts for roughly a third of China's total demand and more than 50% of its seaborne imports, most of which were transported through the strait, according to Kpler.

Iran controls the northern side of the strait, and on Monday an adviser to a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to set fire to any ship that passed through.

Even before the councilor's comments, traffic through the waterway had been effectively halted due to security concerns and after oil tankers in the region were attacked over the weekend.

Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China's foreign ministry, stressed the importance of the strait for trade and called for an immediate ceasefire.

"Maintaining security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community," she said at a press conference on Tuesday.

But years of stockpiling could protect China from immediate supply shocks. China now holds roughly 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil reserves on land, equivalent to about 115 days of seaborne crude imports, Kpler data shows.

An alternative to the USA

China is likely to use US military intervention in Iran to reinforce its message, particularly to countries in the Global South, that Washington acts as a hegemonic power, while Beijing presents itself as a champion of non-intervention.

Some Chinese analysts argue that not providing security guarantees to partners represents a calculated approach by Beijing that distinguishes it from the US.

"This gives China greater flexibility, reduces the risk of strategic overextension, and avoids the costs that come with ensuring the security of allies," said Zichen Wang, deputy secretary-general at the Center for China and Globalization, a non-governmental organization in Beijing.

"But it also limits Beijing's ability to shape strong security outcomes once a crisis turns violent," he added, warning that China's inaction could further encourage Trump's dangerous moves.

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