Serbia’s EU accession with Vučić at the helm risks bringing in a second Orban

Serbia’s path to European Union membership looks increasingly uncertain as concerns grow over the country’s democratic institutions and its alignment with EU foreign policy.

Angelica Vascotto, pan-European member of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), warns in an editorial that Serbia’s accession could give the bloc a second illiberal leader similar to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, potentially undermining the EU’s goals and weakening its influence in the region, writes The Geopost.

The commentary published by ECFR on January 29 focuses on Serbia’s departure from the democratic norms required for EU membership. The commentary states that Serbia has become “the most controversial candidate on the waiting list” for accession.

Continuing to accept Serbia, regardless of its development, could come at a high political cost. For the EU, there is a risk of importing another Orban – an illiberal figure who could veto European objectives such as funding for Ukraine or the inclusion of other Balkan countries – and could further damage Europe’s position when it comes to implementing the strong rule of law, media freedom and democratic standards,” the commentary reads.

The statement comes amid a dispute between Hungary and other EU member states over a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine. Pressure is currently mounting on Hungary ahead of the European Council summit on February 1, where the package will be voted on, after Orban blocked the package at the previous summit before Christmas.

The election sparked protests

The results of Serbia’s December 17 parliamentary elections, the fourth in three years, have raised serious questions about the integrity of the democratic process. Large protests erupted in Belgrade calling for the election to be annulled, with reports of ghost voters, ballot box stuffing and vote buying.

“Serbia is rapidly abandoning its accession course. Last month’s potentially fraudulent parliamentary elections and Belgrade’s growing distance from EU foreign policy should worry Brussels,” warns Vascotto, pointing to the advantages of Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

European leaders are now calling for an investigation into the elections as concerns grow over the erosion of democratic processes. A return to healthier democratic practices seems unlikely if Vučić continues to avoid meaningful dialog with the opposition, suppresses media freedom and curtails political rights.

The European Parliament is seeking a solution for the response to the Serbian elections on February 8.

Foreign policy concerns

Vucic’s deviation from EU foreign policy is causing concern in Brussels. Although Serbia has publicly expressed its support for European values and enlargement, it has not joined the sanctions against Russia and has deepened its economic relations with China. The EU’s assessment of Belgrade’s foreign policy reach was originally 51%, but is likely to have fallen below 50%, raising doubts about Serbia’s commitment to European values.

“Vucic’s reluctance to cooperate with the EU on the world stage or in its democratic processes not only jeopardizes the European enlargement project, but could also weaken its ability to strengthen security in its eastern neighborhood.”

“In particular, the failure to mediate and promote democratic reconstruction could create greater scope for political maneuvering by third countries and further distance Serbia from its western neighbors.”

Vučić’s reluctance to cooperate with the EU not only jeopardizes the enlargement project, but also weakens the EU’s ability to promote security in its eastern neighborhood. If it fails to mediate and promote democratic reconstruction, other countries, including Russia, China and the Gulf states, could exert influence on Serbia and potentially alienate the country from its western neighbors.

“If Serbia continues to gravitate towards such actors, the EU could lose Serbia’s economy in foreign markets. This may also have a detrimental effect on Serbia: While grants and financial support from the EU seem to be severely limited by policy, funding from abroad does not seem to be less tied to commitments or dependencies,” the commentary reads.

Policy recommendations

In a series of policy recommendations, Vascotto says the EU should find effective ways to communicate with Serbian liberal political actors and present itself as a democratic and foreign policy reference that offers support in the face of illiberal tendencies.

“The EU must also address Serbia’s refusal to recognize Kosovo and support efforts to find a bilateral solution, a long-standing dispute that is delaying the accession process.” “European politicians should closely monitor the democratic situation in Serbia and be ready to take decisive action in case of further instability,” she adds.
/The Geopost/