Serbia lags behind Montenegro, Vučić's regime cost it billions of euros from the EU

Montenegro is consolidating its position as the most advanced candidate for membership in the European Union, while Serbia is increasingly lagging behind in the integration process, risking losing tens of billions of euros in European funds, experts estimate.

According to Nova reporting, the European Commission is preparing a financial package of 3.2 billion euros for Montenegro as part of the new seven-year budget of the European Union for the period 2028–2034. The package is based on the expectation that Podgorica will become an EU member by 2028.

The document is expected to be approved by the College of Commissioners next week and, while it does not guarantee membership, is considered a clear signal that Brussels sees Montenegro as a country with real prospects of becoming part of the bloc during the next budget cycle.

According to the proposal, Montenegro will have access to 1.99 billion euros through the National and Regional Partnership Plan, 277 million euros from the Common Agricultural Policy, 592 million euros for home affairs programs, 37 million euros for Interreg cross-border cooperation programs, as well as additional funds from other European Union programs.

On the other hand, Serbia does not currently benefit from these financing mechanisms, while its integration process has remained almost frozen.

Jelica Minić from the European Movement in Serbia estimates that, if Serbia were to become part of the European Union during the same period, it would benefit from around 3 billion euros per year from European funds, while its contribution to the EU budget would be around 750 million euros per year.

"According to the EU budget projections for the period 2028–2034, Serbia would have a net profit of around 2.2 billion euros per year. In total, this would mean around 21 billion euros in non-repayable assistance for reforms and development over seven years," said Minić.

She added that Serbia currently benefits from only 200 to 300 million euros per year through the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA), meaning that the funds would be seven to ten times higher in the event of membership.

According to her, Serbia is remaining part of what she calls the "black hole" of European integration, along with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, while Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia are progressing through the implementation of reforms required by the European Union.

Minić warns that funds initially earmarked for countries that do not move forward in the integration process could be reallocated to more successful candidates.

"Thus, Serbia risks losing around 1.5 billion euros just due to the reallocation of funds," she stressed.

The expert underlined that the problem is not only related to the financial aspect, but also to citizens' support for European integration.

According to her, in Albania there is almost no opposition to EU membership, while in Montenegro public support ranges between 75 and 81 percent. In North Macedonia it ranges from 65 to 70 percent, while in Serbia support has dropped to around 40 percent, almost as many citizens as oppose membership.

Meanwhile, Montenegro continues to close negotiation chapters and advance towards membership, while Serbia has not opened any new negotiating chapters or groups for years.

In its regular reports, the European Commission has consistently expressed concerns about the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary, the fight against corruption, and the harmonization of Serbia's foreign policy with that of the European Union.

The European Commission also assessed that the recent changes in the judicial system constitute a step backwards for the independence of justice.

Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos also warned in May that Brussels had suspended payments under the Growth Plan for Serbia.

"For the moment, we have stopped all payments under the Growth Plan because Serbia has lagged behind in the field of the judiciary. Until these shortcomings are corrected, there will be no financial support from the European Union. Also, full compliance with the EU's foreign and security policy is required before membership. Serbia cannot continue to sit on two chairs. At some point, it will have to choose its direction," Kos declared.

Harsh criticism has also been addressed by the Movement of Free Citizens (PSG), which directly blames Aleksandar Vučić's government for the country's stagnation.

"Under the rule of the Serbian Progressive Party, Serbia has remained mired in propaganda, false reforms, crime and corruption, while Montenegro is securing access to European funds. Vučić's government is costing Serbia not only freedom and institutions, but also tens of billions of euros that could be invested in roads, hospitals, schools, agriculture, energy and wages," the PSG's response states.

According to expert assessments, the lack of reforms, clashes with Brussels, and non-harmonization with the European Union's foreign policy are leaving Serbia increasingly further away from membership, while other countries in the region are benefiting from the EU's financial and political support.

The GeoPost