Russia’s influence in North Macedonia (RNM) and Bulgaria – an obstacle to unlock the Eurointegration Process

North Macedonia expelled five Russian diplomats in late March for their activities beyond the Vienna Convention. With this, since May last year, the country has expelled a total of 7 diplomats, declaring the same “persona non grata”. Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations gives the receiving State the right to notify the sending State that any member of the diplomatic staff is considered persona non grata at any time, including before arrival.

With these evictions, the staff of the Russian embassy in Skopje was reduced from 21 to 14 employees. Since 2015, Russia has increased its staff in northern Macedonia in an effort to increase its influence, which would make it impossible for the country to join NATO. But the rotation of power in 2017 and the signing of the Prespa Agreement with Greece a year later, removed the main obstacle – the Greek veto on the name – for the country to officially become the 30th member of the North Atlantic Alliance in March 2020.

Does this mean that Moscow’s influential power has been reduced to a minimum? Reducing the number of Russian diplomats acting beyond the scope of the Vienna Convention will nevertheless reduce the degree of influence over the lower echelons of state institutions. It will also reduce the influential power in public opinion, which it usually achieves through the propaganda material support of several portals and influential people in the public sphere.

This group of propagandists, however, also includes some small parties that make a big noise in terms of supporting Russia and anathema to the West. Janko Bacev’s directly sponsored party from Moscow, United Macedonia (Obedineta Makedonija), proved to be a failed project. Founded in 2018, the party, which bore a name similar to that of Vladimir Putin (Obedineta Rusija), neither managed to reap election results, nor to be able to organize serious protests. Especially when a year later the wing of Stefan Vlahov Micov, an ultra-nationalist, who, with his public appearances, often caused discord and enmity between Macedonians and ethnic Albanians, broke away from this party. The place of Bacev’s party now seems to have been taken by Dimitar Apasiev’s “Left” (Levica). Ultra-nationalist and deteriorating rhetoric about Macedonian-Albanian and Macedonian-Bulgarian relations is also characteristic of this political entity, which by name was supposed to promote leftist ideological values, which are supranational and anti-nationalist. Apasiev’s party has only two deputies in Parliament, but recent polls show a growing trend of support among the electorate. In the next elections, this subject is estimated to be able to win up to 8 deputies in a Parliament that has a total of 120 deputies, which could factorize it even more in the political scene of the country. Meanwhile, the Macedonian-language portal Antropol, a media outlet close to the “Levica” Party, has been openly defending and promoting Russia’s position in its war with Ukraine. Through analysis by military experts, reports from Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine and other content, this portal tends to build a positive image of Russia.

In parallel with Northern Macedonia, Bulgaria expelled a total of 12 Russian diplomats in March alone. In this country it is estimated that Russia’s influence is higher than in any EU country, while some parliamentary parties openly or indirectly support Moscow. Days ago, in a conversation with journalists, the Prime Minister of Bulgaria Kirill Petkov hinted that one of the reasons for the expulsion of Russian diplomats is their activity in terms of blocking an agreement with Skopje, which would pave the way for North Macedonia and and Albania to start talks with Brussels on EU membership.

“We are investigating a large Russian diaspora living in Bulgaria. We see that they work for many different interests. “I was informed that there were agents who worked against the agreement between Bulgaria and Northern Macedonia,” Petkov said. Asked if the prosecution’s action against Russian agents in the Bulgarian security structures was related to this, Petkov did not give a clear answer. “Russian interest has been focused on not having a European future for the Western Balkans,” Petkov said.

Bulgaria’s blockade of northern Macedonia on its path to the EU further provides a room for maneuver for Russia. This dispute regarding the history before 1945 and the Macedonian language, which was believed to be concluded with the Treaty of Friendship signed by both governments in 2017, was again problematized in 2019. Before the signing of the Treaty of Skopje- Sofia, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a statement that provoked numerous reactions in Bulgaria. “Today in Russia is a festive day because it marks the Day of the Cyrillic Alphabet, which came to us from the Macedonian land,” Putin said during a ceremony in Moscow decorating the former president of northern Macedonia, Gjorge Ivanov. Putin made the statement in May 2017, just a week before the vote for the new pro-Western government in Skopje.

As with attempts to block the Prespa Agreement with Greece, which enabled NATO membership, Moscow appears to be undermining the Skopje-Sofia Treaty in order to prevent EU membership. Now that northern Macedonia and Bulgaria, as EU member, have lined up against Russia over its aggression against Ukraine, the European integration of the Western Balkans also poses a threat to Russian interests in the region.

Writes: Xhelal Neziri, contributor to The Geopost from Northern Macedonia