Russia One Year After Assad’s Fall: Kremlin Loses Influence in Damascus

One year after the removal of Bashar al-Assad, Russia is trying to maintain even a small part of the influence it once considered guaranteed in Syria. What once seemed like a strategic victory for the Kremlin has turned into a loss of influence.

The fall of Assad’s regime was a direct blow to Moscow. He was their most important ally in the Middle East, a figure that Russia had “saved” multiple times through airstrikes and military support. Now, the ally is sheltered in Moscow, unwanted by the new Syrian government and useless to Russia. Even for Vladimir Putin, it is a major loss – a years-long political and military investment collapsed within a few months.

The new Syrian government, emerging from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has made it clear that Russia is no longer the main player in the country. HTS never attacked the Russian airbase during the offensive, but this was not a sign of respect, merely a tactical choice. After taking power, they dictated the rules to Moscow: the Russian base can remain only if it serves Damascus’s interests. They even canceled previous agreements in which Russia had economic positions.

Russian military presence is minimal: two bases for practical reasons, not as a sign of influence. The Kremlin knows this well, which is why it has changed the narrative, calling it a “fragmented presence.”

Even the new Syrian president’s visit to Moscow was more for his own needs: seeking legitimacy, oil, and energy assistance. Russia was no longer in a position to dictate terms. It merely tried to salvage what it could from its remaining positions, mainly bases needed for operations in Africa.

Meanwhile, Assad, once the Kremlin’s strongest card, has become a political headache. Russia keeps him hidden, without influence and without a role in Syrian politics. He does not speak, does not appear, and seems removed from any scene. For the Kremlin, this is a pure loss.

The war in Ukraine has weakened Moscow not only financially but geopolitically. Russia’s attention was divided, resources depleted, and regional countries realized that Moscow no longer has power. Syria now balances between Turkey and the U.S.

At the end of the day, Russia has gone from a dominant actor to a secondary player. What once seemed like a winning bet for the Kremlin has become a sign of its weakening in the Middle East.

/TheGeoPost/