Russia between Serbia and Kosovo as a ‘spoiler’

But now, in the wake of the number plate crisis, the Russian ambassador to Serbia, Aleksandar Bochan-Harchenko, has said that the West is deliberately leaving a “security vacuum” in Kosovo.

Toby Vogel, a fellow at the Brussels-based NGO Council for Democratisation Policy, told RFE/RL that it is Russia’s responsibility to keep Kosovo alive as an unresolved issue. He believes that anything that can cause instability is in Russia’s interest.

“I don’t mean war, but political or perhaps security instability and everything that causes political turmoil in the Western Balkans. Russia is a classic ‘spoiler’,” Vogel said.

Bojan Elek, Deputy Director of the non-governmental Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, agrees.

“Russia is more of a corrupting factor, it can take advantage of some destabilisation if it feels like it,” Elek said.

He adds that Russia is taking advantage of the relatively friendly environment in Serbia.

“I mean both the government and the institutions. There are no active measures against Russian influence”, he says.

Moscow and Belgrade have traditional friendly relations. Serbia counts on Russian support to block Kosovo’s accession to international organisations. Russia, like Serbia, does not recognise Kosovo’s independence.

Serbia is also dependent on Russia for its gas supplies.

What did the Russian ambassador say?

The Russian Ambassador to Serbia, Aleksandar Bocan-Harchenko, said in a statement on 22 November that the West was deliberately leaving a dangerous security vacuum in Kosovo, which he estimated would be filled by Kosovo Albanian special forces.

This was the Russian ambassador’s response to the statement by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, that there was a security vacuum in Kosovo.

Bocan-Harchenko told Borrell that the Eulex mission and KFOR in Kosovo must fill this vacuum.

EULEX is the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo, while KFOR is the NATO-led international armed peacekeeping force.

Borell made the statement about the security vacuum on 21 November after a failed attempt to find a solution for the number plates at a meeting in Brussels with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

The intention of the government in Pristina to cancel the number plates issued by Serbian institutions for towns in Kosovo and the introduction of RKS (Republic of Kosovo) number plates has led to the abandonment of Kosovo institutions, including the police, by Serbs in the north of Kosovo.

Borell said that after the resignation of hundreds of Serbian police officers, “less than 50 Kosovo police officers” remained in the north, which is not enough.

“This has left a very dangerous security vacuum. A vacuum and a very vulnerable situation”, Borell warned, adding that international forces are present but cannot take over the role of local police.

The EU is a facilitator of dialogue and efforts to resolve relations between Serbia and Kosovo.

RT Balkans on the ground in northern Kosovo

The Russian state-owned channel Russia Today (RT), which has been banned from broadcasting in the European Union since March 2022, has also been involved in the Serbia-Kosovo developments.

It has been identified as key to the dissemination of Russian propaganda and is the target of a broad package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

This Kremlin-controlled, state-financed media outlet reports from the scene on the crisis in northern Kosovo.

RT launched its Serbian-language programme on the internet on 15 November with the message “We launched RT in the Balkans. Because Kosovo is Serbia.” This was tweeted by RT’s Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan.

Bojan Elek of the non-governmental Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCBP) points out that their arrival in Serbia is problematic.

“It is problematic that at a time when Russia Today is banned almost everywhere in Europe, their office is opening in Belgrade,” Elek said.

Despite calls from Brussels, the authorities in Serbia refuse to comply with European sanctions against Russia for its aggression against neighbouring Ukraine.

On the news of the introduction of RT in Serbia, the EU announced that Serbia is expected to actively fight against information manipulation, including disinformation and other forms of hybrid threats.

“RT is part of Russia’s propaganda and disinformation instruments following its illegal aggression against Ukraine,” EU spokesman Peter Stano told RSE on 17 November.

He added that in the context of Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, the EU expects Serbia to refrain from escalating relations with Russia.

In its coverage of Kosovo, RT denies Kosovo’s independence and refers to the so-called Kosovo or “Kosovo”, which is in line with Russian state policy.

Moscow’s accusations against the West

Amid tensions between Belgrade and Pristina over the re-registration of licence plates, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova held the West responsible for the crisis.

At a press conference on 9 November, she said that the West had done nothing to make progress in resolving the Kosovo crisis. At the time, Zakharova said that a solution to the Kosovo issue was not developing in the form of dialogue “because Pristina is being incited to more and more brutal actions”.

Two days before, the Russian Foreign Ministry had announced that it saw the situation in Kosovo as an “alarm” and accused the West of “pushing the situation towards direct conflict”.

The accusations against the West go back to the latest tensions between Serbia and Kosovo.

Thus, on 13 January, the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, said in an interview with Russia’s Channel One that Brussels’ “inability” to help resolve the situation in Kosovo showed the “weakness of the European Union”.

He commented that the 2013 agreement between Belgrade and Pristina on the establishment of a Community of Serbian Municipalities (CMU) in Kosovo, which was reached with the mediation of the European Union, has not yet been implemented.

Kosovo’s current Prime Minister, Aljbin Kurti, refuses to implement this CMU agreement because he believes that municipalities cannot be organised on an ethnic basis.

Lavrov also stated during his visit to Belgrade on 10 October 2021 that Moscow, in its contacts with the European Union, always reminds Brussels of its responsibility for dialogue and that “it is time to implement the agreements reached several years ago”. At the time, Lavrov rejected allegations that Russia was interfering in the internal affairs of the Western Balkan countries.

“We have such relations with Serbia and other countries of the region that the most important thing for us is mutual benefit and a balance of interests,” Lavrov said.

Commenting on Russia’s role in the Western Balkans, Brussels-based political analyst Toby Vogel told RFE/RL that he does not think the country does much strategically, but rather opportunistically – they see an opportunity and seize it.

“It doesn’t really have the ability to bind a country fundamentally to its vision or to issue some kind of order to it, but it has the ability to spoil things and change the vacuum that the EU and the US have left in the West. The Balkans in its favour, in a very tactical way,” Vogel believes.

Russia’s role in the Kosovo issue

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic met with the ambassadors of Russia and China on 5 November, the day representatives of Kosovo Serbs announced that they were leaving Kosovo’s institutions, unhappy about Pristina’s plan to re-register cars with Serbian number plates.

After his meeting with Aleksandar Bocan-Harchenko, the Serbian President wrote on Instagram that he had briefed the Russian ambassador on the “security situation” in Kosovo, as well as on the “pressures that Serbs and Serbia are facing”.

“I reiterated our gratitude to the Russian Federation for its principled stance and support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country,” Vucic wrote.

Toby Vogel from the non-governmental Council for Democratization Policy told RFE/RL that Russia has an interest in keeping the Kosovo issue open, as they have been using it tactically for years.

“To show ‘this is what happens when you allow secession’, or to argue ‘if Kosovo can be independent, why can’t Lugansk or Crimea join Russia’. Russia is playing both cards”, Vogel said.

Three days before the invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised the illegal independence of two separatist regions in Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk, better known as Donbas.

Putin sought to justify this decision by drawing a parallel with the declaration of independence of Kosovo from Serbia.

During a meeting with United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Moscow on 26 April, Putin said that if there is a precedent with Kosovo, “the republics of Donbas can do the same”.

Serbia does not recognise Kosovo’s independence. But since 2011, official Belgrade, under the auspices of the European Union, has been in dialogue with Pristina on normalising relations. This dialogue should result in a binding agreement.

Brussels-based analyst Toby Vogel notes that Russia’s role in Belgrade-Pristina relations should not be over-emphasised.

“I think both sides (Serbia and Kosovo) and the mediators in the negotiations are perfectly capable of complicating the situation on their own. They don’t need Russia to do that”, Vogel said.

What the Brussels negotiators failed to do with the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo, the United States has succeeded. At their request, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti agreed to postpone for 48 hours a decision on fining drivers who failed to change their Serbian licence plates.

The US supports the EU-sponsored dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina./REL/