Ramani: After the coup, Wagner is also present in Niger

On July 26, 2023, a coup occurred in Niger when the country’s presidential guard arrested President Mohamed Bazoum and the commander of the presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, declared himself the leader of a new military junta. The presidential guard troops closed the country’s borders, closed state institutions, and imposed a curfew.

It was the fifth military coup since the country’s independence from France in 1960 and the first since 2010, and was widely condemned by the international community and the West African regional bloc, which is currently considering military intervention.

Russia rejoiced in the coup as the West condemned it. However, questions have already been raised about Wagner’s presence in the country.

Although this mercenary group had a dramatic conflict with Moscow, Wagner’s presence in Africa remained remarkably stable. On June 26, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed the Wagner group’s continued activities in Mali and the Central African Republic.

Prigozhin’s surprise appearance at the July 27-28 Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, where he met with African officials, and declaration that Wagner Group forces will leave Ukraine for Africa lent credence to Lavrov’s claims.

Speaking on the issue was international Russia expert Samuel Ramani, who is also a lecturer in politics and international relations at Oxford University.

“There was much speculation last week that the Wagner Group was about to invade Niger. This was due to Russia’s celebratory response to the coup that overthrew democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum and replaced him with Gen. Sergei Lavrov of the Kremlin claimed that Wagner would soon step in. Prigozhin, himself head of the Wagner group, called the coup an anti-colonial uprising and criticized the government for allowing France and the United States into Niger.

He also commented on the possibility of how intervention in Niger would change relations between Russia and Wagner.

“It is true that a senior Nigerian official, Salifou Mody, has visited Mali to try to side with the Wagner Group, but there is no guarantee that relations between Russia and Niger are so close that Wagner would want to intervene.” If the risk of intervention in eco-assets remains, Wagner is unlikely to want to intervene because Russia has many commercial ambitions for Niger, including the Ajaokuta steel plant and many other projects that have been discussed over a long period of time. And Nigeria has been a buyer of Russian fighter aircraft. Also, I think the French, who say that Bazoum is the only person who can dislodge their forces, are preparing to stay at a great distance.”

“So I think that while there is a lot of optimism in Russia right now that they can intervene and start this kind of, as they call it, anti-colonial subversion of the French, I think it’s going to be much harder to sell Wagner.” ” .

Niger’s new military junta has asked the Russian mercenary group Wagner for help as the deadline for the release of Niger’s ousted president expires or face military intervention by the Western African regional bloc.

The meeting of the leader of the coup, General Salifou Mody, in neighboring Mali, during which he contacted someone from the Wagner group, was first reported by France 24./The Geopost/