
Exactly one year and four months since the start of Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine, the world’s focus has not been on the battlefield – but on Russia, where a military coup would almost have taken place.
Yesterday, “the world saw that Russia’s bosses are not in control.” Total chaos. A complete absence of any predictability,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski commented on what is happening in Russia. He told the Russians that “the longer your troops stay on Ukrainian soil, the more destruction they will bring to Russia. The longer this person stays in the Kremlin, the more disasters there will be.”
What then happened in Russia in 24 hours?
On the evening of 23 June, the leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced that his mercenaries were planning to remove the Russian military leadership. Prigozhin’s troops then set off for Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, cities in southern Russia, from where they marched towards Moscow.
In an interview published on the morning of 23 June, Russian Insider reports that Prigozhin said Ukraine had no intention of attacking Russia in 2022, adding that the invasion was launched by the “oligarchic clan” in power and the Russian General Staff. As evening approached, he blamed the Russian Ministry of Defence for the attacks on the Wagner camps and called for an end to the country’s “evil military leadership”.
Prigozhin made a number of statements on his press service channel in the evening and night, finally announcing that Wagner’s fighters had crossed the border from the occupied territories of Ukraine and were moving towards Rostov-on-Don.
There were numerous reports on social networks of Wagner’s mercenaries’ columns stretching for kilometres across the border and the strengthening of security measures in the southern regions of Russia.
The situation only started to become clearer on the morning of 24 June – Prigozhin’s forces entered Rostov-on-Don and took control of several administrative buildings, the headquarters of the Southern Military District, which includes the headquarters of the Combined Forces Group, the unit waging the war in Ukraine, and also moved towards Voronezh, meeting little resistance up to a certain point.
Fighting broke out on the outskirts of Voronezh, and later reports indicated that Wagner had seized military installations in the town, as well as taking control of the military airfield in Millerovo, near the border with Ukraine.
The Wagner group was seen carrying Pancir anti-aircraft missile launchers and Strela-10 air defence systems, which are known to have been used to shoot down at least three Russian helicopters and one Ilyushin Il-18.
Prigozhin’s factions reportedly approached the army and invited them to join them, stating that several members of the security forces reacted positively or refused to resist Wagner’s forces.
Shortly before noon, Prigozhin, who had previously complained only about the military leadership of the Russian Federation, accused President Vladimir Putin of making a “profound mistake” in his assessment of the situation. He said that Wagner’s troops would not lay down their arms because they did not want “the country to continue to live in corruption, lies and bureaucracy”. Prigozhin also made it clear that the group would try to advance against Moscow.
Before making his statement, Prigozhin met Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, who criticised Prigozhin for addressing him in an informal manner.
Their conversation took place, according to Insider, in the building where Generals Vladimir Alekseyev and Sergei Surovikin had hours earlier recorded their appeals calling on mercenaries to stop the rebellion.
In an interview with Insider, retired Russian Air Force Colonel Viktor Alksnis expressed doubt that Prigozhin would have managed to hold Moscow even if his troops had managed to reach the Russian capital.
“I doubt that he has any chance of reaching Moscow if Putin and his entourage start implementing the messages that the president said in his address today. If everything is again reduced to loud statements, but nothing is done, Prigozhin will be able to enter Moscow. Although he will not be able to hold his position with a force of four thousand men.
The Russian army has hundreds of thousands of men, and not all of them are on the front line in Ukraine. Since Wagner has no artillery, it is easy to direct artillery and aviation on a moving convoy without serious air defence. It takes political will to stop this column,” said a retired Russian Air Force Colonel.
How the Russian government reacted
After Yevgeny Prigozhin’s first statements, media reports confirmed the blockade of highways and the entry of equipment and personnel of the government security services into Russian cities – including Moscow. Administrative buildings were surrounded by security forces and road checks were carried out.
Sergei Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces and Deputy Commander of the Russian Forces in Ukraine, and Vladimir Alekseyev, Deputy Head of the Russian Military Intelligence Service (GRU), addressed Prigozhin, saying that mercenaries should not go against those with whom they had recently fought shoulder to shoulder and urged them not to take part in the coup.
Russia’s main state television channel, Channel One, broadcast several breaking news stories overnight. The presenter Ekaterina Andreeva read out a selection of messages from Telegram and news agencies to demonstrate that the situation was under control.
In the morning, an “anti-terrorist operation” regime was imposed in Moscow, as well as in the Moscow and Voronezh regions. Graduation ceremonies in schools in Moscow were postponed for a week and public events in other regions of Russia were cancelled.
On 24 June, at around 10:00, Vladimir Putin addressed the public, describing Prigozhin’s actions (without mentioning him by name) as a “betrayal” of Russia. He promised “inevitable punishment” for those who organised “internal unrest”.
“The armed forces have received the appropriate orders”, the Russian President said, adding that “decisive measures” would be taken to “stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don”.
Prigozhin’s reply to Putin says: “The President is deeply mistaken about the betrayal of the Fatherland.” We are patriots of our homeland, all Wagnerites have fought and are still fighting. And no one will submit to the orders of the President, the FSB or anyone else, because we do not want the country to continue to live in corruption, lies and bureaucracy. When we were fighting in Africa, we were told that we needed Africa, but then it was abandoned because all the money that was supposed to go on aid was embezzled. When they told us to fight in Ukraine, we went there and fought. But it turned out that the ammunition, the weapons and the money that was embezzled from them, while the officials sat back and kept it for themselves, was precisely for the situation that has arisen today – when the troops are marching towards Moscow. Now they are no longer sparing, they are bombing convoys with planes and helicopters where there are civilians. They are hitting civilians because they cannot aim right, but they are hitting what they can. That is why we are patriots and all those who oppose us today are those who have rallied around the scoundrel.”
The Russian president held talks during the day with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his Uzbek counterparts Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Kasim-Zomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov also addressed the situation, echoing the main messages of Putin’s speech and calling on everyone to rally around the head of state. He also announced that Chechen troops were “on their way to the conflict zone” to “crush the rebellion”.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, made a statement that also closely resembled Putin’s, ending with the words: “Victory will be ours. All the leaders of the Russian parliamentary factions have declared that it is necessary to rally around Putin.
The reaction of the West
British military intelligence said in its daily update that Wagner was “almost certainly trying to reach Moscow”. According to the report, Wagner’s group has crossed the Russian border into occupied Ukrainian territory in at least two locations. The Russian army and other security forces offered almost no resistance to Prigozhin’s forces. British Defence Intelligence reported that “the loyalty of the Russian security forces, in particular the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis unfolds.”
US President Joe Biden, the White House said, was following developments closely and was consulting his allies on the situation in Russia.
A spokesman for the European Commission said that the EU was also monitoring developments in Russia and considered them to be Russia’s “internal affairs”. The German Chancellor’s representatives and the French President reacted similarly, saying that support for Ukraine was more important for both countries.
Polish President Andrzej Duda consulted the Prime Minister and the head of the Polish defence ministry on the situation. The Polish authorities also claimed that they were “monitoring” the situation. After a while, information emerged that Duda had put the Polish army on high alert.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Russia’s weakness, which Putin has long covered up with propaganda, was “obvious”. “Whoever chooses the path of evil, destroys himself”, he tweeted.
“The myth of the unity of Putin’s Russia is over. This domestic escalation is dividing the Russian military forces. This is the inevitable result when you support and fund a legion of mercenaries. One thing is certain – the Russian front is weaker today than yesterday.
I hope that peace is closer now”, is the response of Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani to the events in Russia.
Epilog
The “hero” of the day who brokered a ceasefire between the “two evils” in Russia is Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The Russian media, quoting Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov, wrote: “Criminal proceedings against Prigozhin have been suspended, he will be `reported to Belarus’. The authorities will not prosecute members of Wagner who took part in this mutiny on the basis of their merits gained on the battlefield.
Putin thanked Lukashenko for the “work done”:
“Today at 9 p.m. the two presidents spoke again by telephone. The Belarusian President briefed the Russian President in great detail on the results of the negotiations with Wagner’s representatives. The Russian President supported and thanked his Belarusian counterpart for the work done,” Lukashenko’s press service reported.
Prigozhin then announced that he was abandoning the “march of justice” on Moscow after his forces came within 200 km, saying he wanted to “avoid Russian bloodshed”.
Tula Governor Alexei Dyumin led negotiations with Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin on behalf of the Kremlin. They were then given an ultimatum to abandon their entry into Moscow, in return for which they were to drop the charges against Prigozhin, receive security guarantees for Wagner’s fighters and a promise to raise the issue with Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the leader of what.
Prigozhin, last autumn began to publicly criticise Shoigu and Gerasimov for their failures in Ukraine, as well as for failing to deliver the weapons and equipment needed for his forces. More recently, on 11 June, he said that members of his team would not sign any contract with Shoigu’s ministry, rejecting the ministry’s attempts to place Wagner under its command.
Forecasts and analysis
“When Prigozhin got far enough, which was deliberately allowed, the FSB put the appropriate pressure on him to stop, because he could be read like a book.”
Osechkin, who has access to a wealth of confidential information on Prigozhin and is the foremost expert on him because of his human rights work focusing on Wagner’s war crimes, believes that the Russian president let Prigozhin get this far because Prigozhin has a major compromise with Putin.
On the other hand, Velina Chakarova, former Director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES), points out that it was a coup by Prigozhin.
Gary Kasparov, chess legend, Russian dissident and fierce opponent of the Russian President’s regime, points out: “Mafia is like mafia. Whatever agreement is reached today, blood has been shed and Putin’s illusion of invincibility is gone. He and his friends have felt real fear. Moscow has been threatened.”
Michael McFaul, professor of political science and US ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014, wonders how long Prigozhin will be alive. “I find it hard to believe that Putin will let him live in peace in Belarus.” He argues that when faced with the prospect of actually losing against Wagner’s mercenaries coming to Moscow, Putin simply capitulated.
“Putin accepted the humiliation. He was a rat, backed into a corner, whom many Putinologists told us to fear. He also negotiated with a traitor.
The lesson of the war in Ukraine is clear. Putin is more likely to negotiate and end his war if he loses on the battlefield. Those who argued that Ukraine should not invade Crimea for fear of provoking an escalation must now reconsider that hypothesis,” McFaul said.