NZZ: Serbia is not Yugoslavia and Vučić is not Tito – the game is coming to an end

Serbia’s long-standing policy of balancing between the European Union, the United States, Russia, and China is facing a serious crisis as a result of the war in Ukraine, international sanctions, and mounting energy pressures.

This is the assessment of German and Swiss media, which emphasize that Belgrade is increasingly being forced to make clear geopolitical choices.

The Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) writes that after Kosovo declared independence in 2008, Serbia developed the so-called “Four Pillars Doctrine,” seeking to maintain favorable relations simultaneously with the EU, the US, Russia, and China.

According to the author Andreas Ernst, this strategy gave Belgrade considerable room for maneuver for nearly two decades.

However, over the past year, this policy has begun to unravel.

“Three of the four pillars of Serbian foreign policy have been shaken at the same time, precisely at a moment when the thirteen-year rule of President Aleksandar Vučić has been weakened from within, in the face of student protests, a growing civic movement, and a strengthening civil society,” NZZ writes.

The newspaper notes that Vučić’s expectations of a new chapter in relations with the United States following Donald Trump’s return to the White House did not materialize. According to NZZ, the Trump administration strictly upheld earlier sanctions against Serbia’s oil industry, which is largely Russian-owned, and demanded its sale.

At the same time, relations with Russia have become strained. Although Serbia did not join sanctions against Moscow, it has supplied Ukraine with ammunition via third countries, which has deeply angered the Kremlin. Moscow, according to the Swiss newspaper, is now using Serbia’s dependence on Russian gas as a lever of pressure by repeatedly delaying the signing of a new supply contract.

As for the European Union, NZZ writes that Serbia’s accession process has stagnated for years and has been virtually frozen since 2021 due to the deterioration of the rule of law and media freedom. The balancing policy, which once also served a domestic audience by portraying Vučić as a leader with access to all major powers, is now losing its effect.

“Serbia is not Yugoslavia and Vučić is not Tito,” NZZ stresses, adding that the country is too small to play the role of a middle power amid an increasingly sharp confrontation between Russia and the West. According to the newspaper, the game of the “four pillars” is coming to an end, further undermining Vučić’s already weakened authority.

Meanwhile, Berliner Zeitung writes that the United States is pushing Serbia toward a forced reorientation, particularly in the energy sector. The newspaper reports that the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued a temporary license for Serbia’s Oil Industry (NIS), enabling the resumption of production after disruptions caused by sanctions.

According to Berliner Zeitung, Washington’s goal is not the permanent shutdown of Serbia’s energy infrastructure, but the complete removal of Russian capital from the sector. The next three weeks are considered decisive for reaching a lasting solution, which could include the sale of Russian shares to Western companies.

The newspaper warns that if negotiations fail and the U.S. license expires at the end of January, Serbia risks once again facing a serious energy crisis, with unpredictable political and economic consequences.

According to German and Swiss media, Serbia is entering a phase in which traditional balancing is no longer sustainable and in which choosing a strategic orientation will be unavoidable.