Who produces pro-Russian narratives in the Balkans?

A comprehensive new study titled “Made at Home – Political Elites and Media Narratives on the Ukraine War in Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina” shows that pro-Russian narratives in Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are not created in Moscow, but arise within the regional states themselves – through political calculations, media structures, and long-standing identity divisions.

The research, authored by Vuk Vuksanović, is based on artificial intelligence analysis of media content in the period 2022–2025, includes tens of thousands of texts and 26 interviews with journalists, analysts and researchers from the region.

In Serbia, over 51.000 articles about the war in Ukraine have been analyzed, which have generated over 800.000 interactions on Facebook.

The analysis shows that pro-Russian messages intensify during political crises, protests, elections, and foreign policy tensions, while fading when they lose their political function.

Serbia: War as a clash between Russia and the West

In pro-government media in Serbia, the war in Ukraine is often presented as a broader conflict between Russia and the West, while Ukraine is depicted as an extension of NATO.

The narrative that the West is waging a “proxy war” against Russia was recorded 486 times, while the phrase “special military operation” was recorded at least 64 times. Allegations of provocation by NATO appeared 101 times.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić pursues a policy of balancing between the EU and Russia, but media discourse often leans towards interpretations that relativize Russian responsibility or emphasize the West as the main instigator of the conflict.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Two media realities

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, narratives are deeply divided along entity lines.

In Republika Srpska, pro-government media regularly use phrases such as “denazification,” “special military operation,” and claims that the West is waging war against Russia through Ukraine. The narrative that Ukraine is a “Nazi state” was recorded 58 times, while the thesis that the West does not want peace was mentioned 177 times.

Milorad Dodik has been identified as the main political actor in publicly promoting rhetoric that presents Russia as a defender of sovereignty and traditional values.

Meanwhile, the media in the Federation of BiH mainly maintain a more critical tone towards Moscow, but the analysis notes that even there there are cases of uncritical broadcasting of statements by Russian officials, enabling the indirect spread of certain narratives.

Montenegro: Imported narratives in a pro-Western environment

Montenegro, although a member of NATO and formally oriented towards the EU, presents a different model.

Pro-Russian narratives in this country are usually spread through the republishing of content from pro-government Serbian tabloids.

Mainstream Montenegrin media remains largely pro-Western, but political divisions and identity issues create space for the selective acceptance of messages that relativize Moscow's responsibility or emphasize the West's guilt.

The study identifies the so-called “echo effect” between Serbia and Republika Srpska – the same content and interpretations circulate in the regional media space, often without significant changes.

Russian sources do not need to operate directly in every country; it is enough for local politicians, media outlets, and public figures to receive and adapt the messages for their audiences.

The Geopost