Jason Steinhauer exclusively for The Geopost: Lessons from Romania

The world was shocked in late November when Calin Georgescu, a far-right candidate with no political party affiliation, took the lead in the first round of Romania’s presidential election. Georgescu earned more than 2 million votes after he increased his followers on TikTok by tenfold in the weeks leading up to the election. TikTok was largely credited with delivering his unexpected victory.

Even though the Romanian courts have nullified the results and ordered the election process be re-started from scratch, Georgescu’s rise illuminates important trends as the world concludes an historic year for elections wherein an estimated 2 billion people voted in at least 50 countries.

1. Alternative media and social media are driving voter behavior more than traditional media

For several years, social media—particularly TikTok—have been driving forces in consumer behavior. In the music industry, for example, songs that go viral on TikTok dictate record deals with music labels, concert tours, and songs that top the pop charts.

Now, it is clear that TikTok, social media and alternative media also drive political behavior. In the United States election, President Donald Trump was hugely successful in leveraging social media and influencer podcasts to spread his message and sway voters. While Kamala Harris appeared in traditional media such as CNN and “The View,” a show on the American television network ABC, President Trump appeared on independent podcasts such as Joe Rogan and Lex Friedman, in addition to relying on social media platforms Truth Social and X. Harris’s more formal appearances in traditional media were unsuccessful in swaying undecided voters, while Trump’s informal interviews and memes—such as working at McDonald’s or dancing to “Y-M-C-A”—better connected with voters.

In the Romanian context, Georgescu relied heavily on TikTok. Between the November 23 – 28, the hashtag #cailingeorgescu accumulated more than 345 million results on the platform, according to the Romanian think tank Expert Forum. His social media presence, and the amplification on social media of his imagery, memes and remarks resonated with voters. Alternatively, the first-round results seemed to punish candidates who had more visibility within the mainstream media and traditional government structures, including former NATO deputy secretary general Mircea Geoană, who only received 6 percent of the vote.

2. Anti-establishment messaging is resonating with voters

Social media has anti-establishmentarianism at much of its core. The X platform under Elon Musk has embraced the dismantling of traditional institutions such as government agencies and legacy journalism, and TikTok’s rise owed much to its culture of making fun of “boomers” before the pandemic and being against masks and lockdowns during the pandemic. Even Wikipedia was founded nearly 25 years ago with the intention of taking power away from established academics.

This ethos of social media has infiltrated politics. Many of the candidates who have won elections have positioned themselves as anti-institutionalists, arguing that they are best equipped to undo the harms that legacy institutions have caused. These harms include inflation and war, both of which are seen to be benefitting a privileged few while a wider majority suffers.

These narratives proved to be very successful in Romania. Central to Georgescu’s campaign were polemics against inflation, NATO, and the imposition of European institutions on Romanian sovereignty. These anti-establishment talking points found receptive audience on social media platforms that have developed a culture of anti-establishmentarianism over a period of years.

3. Russian influence remains a crucial factor that must be reckoned with

It has been well-documented how Russia attempted to influence the U.S. Presidential elections in 2016 as well as the European Union elections in 2019. Since then, both America and Europe have become more alert to the actions of Russia in this arena, as well as more sophisticated in monitoring, tracking and combatting threats.

The Romanian election demonstrated that despite these measures, Russian intentions remain and the tactics continue to evolve. As documented by Expert Forum as well as the Romanian government, a network of hundreds of accounts on TikTok artificially amplified Calin Georgescu in the weeks leading up to the Romanian election, often times expressing political content in violation of TikTok’s own policies, which were not enforced. Pro-Georgescu influencers on TikTok were allegedly paid millions of euros to back his campaign, with authorities suggesting that the ultimate source of funding was from Russia as part of a deliberate attempt to influence Romania’s democratic process. This would be far from the first time Russian money has been funneled into Romania in order to sway public opinion; it was reported earlier this year that Russia spent 69 million euro for propaganda in Romania and Bulgaria, according to Bulgarian researchers.

The Romanian election demonstrates that Russia remains a sophisticated actor willing to engage in a variety of tactics to influence political affairs in other countries.

Ultimately, it will be up to the Romanian authorities and citizens to decide how their Presidential election unfolds in the weeks and months ahead. While the results of November’s election have been discarded, the lessons should not be. Anti-establishment messaging on social media—some authentic discontent and others manufactured by outside actors for political purposes—figures to remain a potent political force for the foreseeable future.

/The Geopost