It does not matter who the president is, because the Russian principle is always the same. First, led by Moscow, the separatists rebel, then declare their territory a republic, then call on Mother Russia for help, which, in the end, sends its army to establish its military bases in the territory of the other state. In the end, Russia recognized some of these provinces as “independent republics”, while leaving others permanently in an unresolved constitutional and legal status. So, the principle was the same in Moldova when Russia invaded Transnistria, which they called Pridnjestovlje, and in Georgia when Abkhazia and South Ossetia “rebelled,” in the Russian-annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, and finally in eastern Ukraine, where the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic were formed.
While the eyes of the world were on Moscow, MP Ana Catauta said on Romanian television on Monday that, according to her information, “separatist leaders from Tiraspol in Russia, are trying to include Transnistria in the list of separatist regions.”
What exactly is Transnistria?
If you look at the official maps, the former Soviet republic of Moldova relies on Ukraine along its entire northern border. But the current situation on the ground is not exactly like that. About 4.1 thousand square kilometers in the north of Moldova, in the border area with Ukraine, are not controlled at all by the authorities located in the capital Chisinau. Formally, no country in the world, not even Russia, has ever recognized the existence of Transnistria. However, the so-called Transnistrian Moldovan Republic has existed since 1992, created with the help of the Fourteenth Soviet Army. The area was inhabited mainly by Russians, Ukrainians and Romanians. After Moldova seceded from the Soviet Union, there was a rebellion in the region. Residents of present-day Transnistria demanded the annexation of Russia, staged a referendum, and eventually escalated into an armed conflict between Chisinau legal authorities and rebels in northern Moldova. There were between 500 and 1,000 casualties in the clashes. The Russian army soon intervened in the conflict and Transnistria managed to “separate” from Moldova. With the help of the Russian army, they set up their own institutions, formed an army, created a passport and other documents. By decision of the Council of Europe, this area is considered an area of frozen conflict.
South Ossetia – Republic of Georgia
By decree of Dmitry Medvedev, then President of the Russian Federation, on August 26, 2008, Moscow officially recognized the Republic of South Ossetia. It is a territory located within the borders of the internationally recognized state of Georgia. Clashes between the South Ossetians and the Georgian authorities began shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1992, South Ossetia declared independence, expressing a desire to join Russia. A war broke out which quickly stopped and the so-called peacekeeping forces of Russia, Ossetia and Georgia were formed. The situation on the ground is monitored by the OSCE mission. However, in 2004, tensions rose in the region. Soon, US President George W. Bush was saying that Georgia’s future is in NATO. In 2008, legal authorities in Georgia launched an operation to liberate their territory. But Russia reacted immediately and sent its forces to Georgia. South Ossetia was “saved”, and immediately after the military operation, Russia recognized the province. First, the Duma asked the President of the Russian Federation to recognize South Ossetia, and finally, President Medvedev signed a decree recognizing this so-called state, which is not recognized by any Western power. However, this does not change the current situation on the ground. South Ossetia exists.
The President of South Ossetia, Anatoliy Bibilov, paid an official visit to Banja Luka in 2018, where he attended the ceremony marking the unconstitutional day of Republika Srpska.
Abkhazia – Republic of Georgia
Abkhazia, like South Ossetia, is an internationally recognized prefecture in the Georgia area. The eastern borders of this so-called state face the Black Sea, which is geostrategically very important. After the collapse of the USSR and the independence of Georgia, Abkhazia decided to enter separatism. In the early 1990s, they declared independence. The official currency is the Russian ruble. Abkhazians get Russian passports without any problems – this is the only way for them to travel to the West. The Russian Federation has not recognized the country for years, but after Russian forces entered Georgia in 2008, Medvedev recognized Abkhazia.
Abkhazia has also established its own recognized institutions from Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, South Ossetia and Transnistria. In 2015, Abkhaz officials paid an “official” visit to Republika Srpska, where they met with the then President of the entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik.
As RTRS reported, Dodik said that “Serbia and Abkhazia were in identical situations when it comes to the fight for political autonomy and independence.”
When Viktor Yanukovych decided in 2013 to suspend Ukraine’s integration into the EU, disgruntled residents of the country took to the streets. Three months of protests in Maidan Square resulted in the overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president. Exactly on February 22, 2014, Yanukovych fled to Moscow. At the same time, military formations were sent by the Russian leadership to occupy the Crimean Peninsula. Pro-Russian paramilitary formations then led an armed uprising in parts of the Ukrainian Luhansk and Donetsk regions. About 30 percent of these regions are “occupied” and two republics have been declared – the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic. A year later, in the capital of Belarus, Minsk, a peace agreement was reached, which was partially respected by the Ukrainian authorities in Kiev and the leaders of the pro-Russian paramilitary formations.
However, at the end of 2021, Russia began to concentrate its forces on the borders of Ukraine, which caused tensions on the borders of the occupied Ukrainian territories. In mid-February, the Russian Duma called on President Vladimir Putin to recognize the two prefectures, which he eventually did. The leaders of the LNR and DNR immediately signed an agreement which enabled Russian forces to enter the occupied territory of Ukraine. In the coming period, the West expects a greater invasion. First of all, the newly proclaimed republics are separated from Crimea and Transnistria. To unite these territories, Russia would have to occupy two cities – Mariupol on the shores of the Azov, and Odessa on the shores of the Black Sea. Both cities are still controlled by the government in Kiev.
A day after the Russian recognition of the state in Ukraine, the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to BiH, Igor Kalabukhov, visited Banja Luka, where he met with Milorad Dodik, from where he welcomed the recognition of the LNR and DNR. At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Russian media that “the right to sovereignty should be respected only in relation to states representing the entire nation living on their territory.”
Avdo Avdic, contributor to The Geopost from Bosnia and Herzegovina
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