US experts: Russia-China-Iran axis poses major challenge

Russia, China and Iran are increasingly creating a strategic alliance of convenience that American politicians must confront as it aims to disrupt the world order, according to a group of American experts and former officials.

Speaking on June 10 at the national security conference titled “America’s Adversaries: The Russian Reality,” organized by the Independent Women’s Forum, many of the panelists emphasized that the transactional benefits of this alliance are already yielding significant strategic benefits, particularly for the Iranian regime, which is otherwise isolated on the international stage.

Driven by shared opposition to American dominance, these three countries are coordinating diplomatically, integrating their military cooperation, and working to find ways to evade Western sanctions.

"The question is whether we are dealing with a strategy of disruption, an alliance of tactical convenience or opportunism, or whether this is designed to create a different set of strategic outcomes in terms of the global order," said Nadia Schadlow, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former US deputy national security adviser.

To stop the momentum of this axis, she said Washington must stop treating Russia, China and Iran as separate regional theaters and instead find creative ways to create disruption in their cooperation.

"We need to make their report as difficult as possible," Schadlow said.

Russia, China, and Iran are not bound by a formal trilateral mutual defense treaty, but their interests have been brought closer in recent years through conflicts.

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, global sanctions have tightened like a noose around its economy, forcing it to strengthen ties wherever it can.

Similarly, Iran has been under severe sanctions for years, and even more so since the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against it on February 28.

Beyond domestic survival, this authoritarian synergy is creating a dangerous feedback loop on the battlefield, said Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council.

Berman, who is also a board member of Radio Free Europe, added that as Iran has supplied waves of drone ammunition to support Russia's war in Ukraine, Western intelligence agencies fear that combat data collected on European soil will soon be returned, making Iran's domestic arsenal significantly more deadly.

"The problem with Iran is not just the problem with Iran. It's an Iran-Russia-China problem," Berman argued, explaining that Moscow and China have provided Tehran with a vital economic and technological lifeline to cope with both internal turmoil and harsh international sanctions.

However, several panelists stressed that while cooperation is expanding, relations between Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran remain essentially transactional.

Or, as Congressman Pat Harrigan, a Republican from North Carolina and former US Army Special Forces officer, described it, this rapprochement is more of a marriage of convenience.

“When it stops being mutually beneficial, those actions stop too,” Harrigan said, suggesting that the partnership is driven by immediate shared interests, rather than a long-term strategic brotherhood.

However, these transactional benefits are already yielding significant strategic dividends, especially for an isolated Iranian regime.

Berman, for example, points out that during anti-government protests earlier this year, Beijing and Moscow provided the Iranian regime with the digital shield it needed to suppress domestic dissent. The crackdown on the protests left thousands of protesters dead.

Meanwhile, Iran has been supplying Russia with waves of ammunition to support its war in Ukraine, and Western intelligence agencies fear that combat data collected on European soil will soon be returned to Iran, making its domestic arsenal significantly more deadly.

China's financial assistance
This military exchange is entirely supported by the financial support of Beijing, which acts as the main guarantor of the regime's survival.

"About 90 percent of Iran's oil exports go to a single country, China," Berman said, making it clear that without Chinese purchases and Russia's diplomatic and military support, "Iran simply would not be financially sustainable."

Daniel Hoffman, former CIA station chief in Moscow, said the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine extends far beyond its borders and to the front lines of a broader systemic confrontation between democratic norms and the resurgence of authoritarianism.

"Ukraine now stands on the geopolitical dividing line between dictatorship and democracy," Hoffman said.

According to Hoffman's analysis, Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression is driven less by territorial ambitions and more by an existential fear that democracy could spread near the borders of his own state, Russia.

“What Vladimir Putin fears most is democracy,” Hoffman said, describing a recently crystallized “axis of dictatorships” made up of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, all united by a single objective: systematically reducing U.S. global influence.

Hoffman added that Moscow's ongoing rhetoric in favor of a "multipolar world" is simply diplomatic smokescreen designed to legitimize spheres of influence.

"What they really want is the freedom to conquer their neighbors and subjugate them within spheres of influence," he said.

According to him, as it grows, hesitation is the last thing the West can afford, as this would give this axis the space it needs to strengthen.

"When we send military capabilities into theater in a piecemeal fashion, when we enter a conflict with excessive caution and start introducing capabilities one by one, we are effectively creating the military equivalent of antibiotic resistance in the Russian military," Harrigan said.

Similarly, Schadlow argued that the time for reactive, crisis-by-crisis management is over and that American politicians should return to robust deterrence and clear, unquestionable demonstrations of force.

As Washington considers its next strategic steps, Berman stressed that understanding this interconnected ecosystem of adversaries is a prerequisite for any effective deterrence strategy.

"The sooner we understand this," Berman said, "the sooner we can distribute the pressure appropriately."/REL