Bugajski for The Geopost: Conflict between two global blocs escalates

The escalating global struggle between two rival blocs is not simply a contest between democracy and authoritarianism, West against East, or North against South. It is not an inter-religious war or a “clash of civilizations.” It is based on a much more fundamental division between imperialism and independence.

Russia and China are at the forefront of the imperial bloc, seeking hegemony over neighbors by dominating their economies, controlling their political systems, or seizing their territories. Their natural allies are states that have their own regional mini-imperial ambitions, such as Iran, North Korea, Serbia, and Venezuela, or regimes that benefit from Moscow’s and Beijing’s diplomatic and economic backing, including Belarus and Hungary.

The independence bloc is based around the Western and Eastern democracies but also includes semi-authoritarian states who seek to preserve their statehood from imperial predators. The US is the most powerful anti-imperial state that itself emerged from a former empire. NATO and the EU are voluntary coalitions that provide security and prosperity to independent members. And a number of Pacific states, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand, seek similar protection against imperial imposters.

The independence bloc also includes new democracies such as Ukraine, emerging democracies, and even quasi-authoritarian states such as the Central Asian countries determined to defend their independence from Russia and China. Moscow is constantly seeking to reverse the progress of pro-Western states, including Georgia and Moldova, and the independence bloc needs to be more active in protecting their sovereignty.

The global split is exacerbated by a series of wars that involve the major powers. Russia launched this new “world war” by invading Ukraine and banked on a speedy imperial conquest. It now faces catastrophic military losses, a contracting civilian economy, and an eventual rupture into several independent states that will want to protect themselves from the imperial bloc.

To undermine US leadership in the independence bloc, Moscow encourages regional conflicts. It benefits from proxies and collaborators such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian regime to conduct terrorist attacks and spark wars in the Middle East. It encourages the Vučić regime and his collaborators in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosova, and Montenegro to destabilize independent governments and create problems for Washington in the Western Balkans. And it backs North Korea in its threatening nuclear posture toward South Korea and Japan.

Nonetheless, several of these regional conflicts can rebound against Russia’s ambitions and expand the independence bloc. Ukraine’s victory through the expulsion of Russian forces from all of its territory will pave the way for an enlarged and more secure Europe. In the South Caucasus, both Azerbaijan and Armenia are poised to become constructive regional players once they finalize a peace treaty and curtail destabilizing Russian influence. And in the Western Balkans, Washington and Brussels must be more decisive in countering Belgrade’s plan for regional dominance by reinforcing the independence of all Serbia’s neighbors. The main loser will be Russia and this will undermine the position of all regimes who view Moscow as an ally.

The global competition between independence and imperialism has reached a critical point. The Biden administration has an opportunity to score a historic victory over Russia, America’s perennial adversary, without the death of a single US soldier. To accomplish such a decisive triumph Washington needs to provide all the firepower that Ukraine needs to defeat the Russian invaders. All militarily related infrastructure inside Russia, including transportation, energy, and the military industry, are now legitimate targets as Moscow has established a war economy.

Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will help guarantee European security by diminishing Moscow’s military capabilities and consolidate the independence of all neighbors. Russia’s defeat will also send a strong signal to Beijing not to underestimate Western capabilities and political resolve by attacking Taiwan. It will weaken China’s anti-Western ambitions, isolate regimes in Iran, Serbia, Syria, Belarus, and other proxies, and encourage democratic forces to oust the failed dictators.

A defeated Russia heading toward state rupture will no longer be a source of attraction, influence, or resources to any country. It will reveal its imperialist and colonialist nature and newly liberated nations and regions emerging from a post-Russia can establish bonds with other post-colonial states in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. In sum, Russia’s defeat will be a watershed in assigning the imperialist bloc to history.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture.. His new book published in the fall is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power.

/The Geopost