China (not) friendly with Russia is quietly trying to dampen Putin’s influence

The leaders of a club of countries influenced by Russia and China as a counterweight to Western world power are meeting in Kazakhstan this week.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the Kazakh capital Astana.

During their discussion, they will reportedly look for ways to expand the organization as part of their joint mission to reverse US global power.

However, despite their “borderless” partnership based on shared hostility towards the US and its NATO allies, there are growing differences between (army) friends Putin and Xi.

Ukraine has changed the balance of power

The leaders are in fierce competition for influence over the original members of the SCO – the Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The SCO was founded as a regional security pact, but has expanded in recent years to include India, Pakistan and Iran. Another NATO opponent is expected to join this week with the admission of Belarus.

The Central Asian republics were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are traditionally considered part of the Kremlin’s sphere of influence.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has drained the Kremlin’s resources, money and energy, while countries that trade with Russia face sanctions from the West.

Meanwhile, Beijing has quietly pressed its advantage, negotiating trade deals and building political influence in the region.

“The war in Ukraine has proved to Central Asian countries that diversifying their relations with the world is key to their successful existence in the region,” Temur Umarov, a fellow at Carnegie Russia’s Eurasia Center, told The Guardian.

China is building car factories and power plants in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, brokering contracts for surveillance software and expanding its direct rail link to Kazakhstan to further strengthen trade ties.

According to China Customs, trade between China and Central Asia grew by 27% to 89 billion US dollars in 2023.

Although Russia is likely to be concerned about the developments, there is not much it can do about it.

A one-sided partnership

In view of the West’s efforts to isolate the country because of the war in Ukraine, Russia is increasingly dependent on diplomatic and economic support from China.

“The importance of Chinese aid and indirect support for Ukraine is a priority for Moscow and will shape its attitude towards Beijing as long as the confrontation with the West continues,” Emil Avdaliani, professor of international relations at the European University in Tbilisi, wrote in January for the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Russia is trying to boost trade with the Central Asian republics and is reportedly using them to ban goods through Western sanctions. But it cannot compete with China’s economic power.

While Russia cites its ties with China as proof that the West has failed to isolate the country, this friendship comes at a high price.

“We are friends with Russia, but at the same time we are looking for opportunities,” Mirshohid Aslanov, founder of the Tashkent-based think tank Progressive Reform, told the Wall Street Journal. “We are looking east with great anticipation”./The Geopost/