Bugajski for The Geopost: Trump’s impact in the western Balkans

Janusz Bugajski,

Although the Western Balkans will not be on the priority list of a potential Trump presidency, his isolationist and transactional policies can jeopardize the region’s fragile peace. While President Biden has conceded too much ground to Belgrade and allowed it to unsettle its neighbors, Trump is even more likely to accept Serbia’s dominant role and reduce support for the sovereignty of Kosova, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Montenegro.

During Trump’s first term, the White House appointed diplomats with Serbian connections, particularly Richard Grenell, the Special Envoy for Serbia and Kosova Peace Negotiations. Trump’s relations with Belgrade have since been strengthened, as his son-in-law Jared Kushner is building a hotel complex in the center of Belgrade and will rely on a friendly Vučiċ administration to guarantee his investments. Serbian nationalists clearly favor a Trump victory and Grenell has been bestowed with awards by the Serbian government, which calculates that he will help design Balkan policy for Trump.

Trump is likely to favor a deal with Belgrade by enabling Kosova’s northern municipalities to join Serbia while claiming that he had finally resolved the conflict. Alternatively, Trump’s withdrawal of the remaining US forces from Kosova could encourage a Serbian military intervention to seize territory. Serbia spends 2.3% of its gross domestic product on its military and has become the strongest armed force in the region with Russian, Chinese, and Western equipment, and Vučić has been preparing for such an eventuality.

A plan for Kosova’s partition was proposed by Trump’s envoys during his first term and this can become a major plank for future Balkan policy. As Trump officials seem willing to surrender several regions of Ukraine to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire, they can use this as a model for Kosova and Bosnia-Hercegovina. One should not underestimate their naivety and incredulity in disregarding how Kosova’s partition can provoke inter-ethnic conflicts, expulsions, forced border changes, and further regional wars.

In such a scenario, Trump’s hesitation to use American troops would make the situation even more volatile and destructive. His broader decisions on US relations with European NATO will directly impact on America’s military posture and rules of engagement in the Western Balkans. Although Trump has threatened to leave NATO, in practice he may simply weaken the alliance without formally withdrawing. In return for any US military involvement, Trump will expect all European countries to substantially increase their defense spending. He will also pursue a strategic reorientation away from Europe toward the Far East, as several of his advisors view China as America’s pre-eminent threat.

Although Washington will most probably maintain its nuclear umbrella over Europe, together with airbases and naval fleet, the remaining land forces will evacuate. In effect, America will no longer supply the bulk of combat power to the continent. And this will have major implications for the Western Balkans, where NATO members or aspirants may no longer rely on Washington in a time of crisis. This is especially stark, as all NATO states in the region spend less than 2% on defense and would thereby be excluded from Trump’s criteria for providing military assistance.

Trump would most probably halt any further NATO enlargement, whether in the case of Ukraine, Georgia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, or Kosova. Furthermore, his rancorous relations with Brussels will generate divisions between the US and the EU on Balkan policy that could be exploited by Moscow and Belgrade. The EU itself is even less likely to accept new members from the region if they are involved in mounting internal and external conflicts because of waning American interest and involvement.

The EU’s new High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian Prime Minister, is a strong anti-Moscow voice and is likely to clash with the Trump State Department. She will also have opponents in Germany and France fearful of escalating disputes with Moscow. In essence, Trump will seek to leave Europe to the Europeans, so that America no longer has to pay or defend the continent. But without a leading American military and diplomatic presence, the EU may prove too weak and fractious to contain Belgrade’s ambitions or prevent the region spiraling toward another armed confrontation. NATO without the US remains a disunited geopolitical player with limited military capabilities and its cohesion will be seriously tested in the Western Balkans during a second Trump presidency.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His new book published in the fall is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Geopost.