Bugajski: The EU tolerates Vucic as it once tolerated Putin

The West negotiated with the Serbian Orthodox Church, which is a direct link with the Kremlin, because it thought that concessions would appease it, but it doesn’t work that way, we know from experience. This same Europe allowed Russian “dirty” money to flow through European banks for thirty years in order to make Moscow pro-European. The Russians are now using those connections to undermine that same Europe. There are no negotiations with Moscow, the Russian Church and the Church of Serbia – explains Bugajski

The West naively believed the story that Dritan Abazovic as a new face, after thirty years of DPS rule, would be a hit. And now we see how dangerous it was because it was used by malignant political actors who were waiting for the DPS to weaken. They used that chance and entered the Montenegrin system and are now dragging Montenegro back. I think that both the USA and the EU are very disappointed in Abazovic, and not so much in him, but in their own miscalculation – says Janus Bugajski, a senior associate of the Jamestown Foundation from Washington and an expert on the Balkans, in an interview with Pobjeda.

He points out that there must have been discussions with Abazovic in the US about the formation of a new government and he must have been told not to enter into a deal with a party that is not only corrupted by Russian money, but is also a danger to the region due to its Russian ties.

I hope he got the message. I often wonder if this man is naive or lacks experience in geopolitics or if there is something deeper – if he is personally connected to Vucic or Edi Rama. I will not accuse him of corruption, as lightly as he does it to other people, because that is the easiest thing – to accuse someone without evidence. But, unfortunately, the West, out of naivety, believed the story that he, as a new face, would be a hit after thirty years of DPS rule. And now we see how dangerous it was because it was used by malignant political actors who were waiting for the DPS to weaken. They used that chance and entered the Montenegrin system and are now dragging Montenegro back. I think that both the USA and the EU are very disappointed in Abazovic, not so much in him, but in their own miscalculation – says Bugajski.

Bugajski explains that it is very difficult to find justification for certain moves by Abazovic.

If his goal was to sign the so-called fundamental contract and to enable the Church of Serbia to get what it wants, to remove that issue from the agenda, he overplayed his hand, because the SPC is now stronger than ever and will impose itself as a very important political actor.

And not only as a link to Vucic, but as an open window of the Kremlin in the Western Balkans. And that is the greatest danger to which he exposed the state.

He points out that this recognition by the USA that DF is financed by Russia came too late, but claims that many political actors knew this even before the announcement.

But this recognition is a clear message from the US that it will not support parties financed by Russian money in the government of a country negotiating with the EU. There were a lot of mistakes there even before this recognition. The West negotiated with the Serbian Orthodox Church, which is a direct link with the Kremlin, because it thought that concessions would appease it, but it doesn’t work that way, we know from experience. This same Europe allowed Russian “dirty” money to flow through European banks for thirty years in order to make Moscow pro-European. The Russians are now using those connections to undermine that same Europe. There are no negotiations with Moscow, the Russian Church and the Church of Serbia – explains Bugajski.

Illusions of the West

It follows that we have a similar situation with tolerance towards Aleksandar Vucic, because the EU and the USA hope that it is possible to negotiate with him.

First of all, there is the naivety and misunderstanding of the West when it comes to the Western Balkans, and secondly, they think that they can still convert Vucic into a democrat, into someone with whom they can cooperate and that they can separate him from Russia. But that is impossible. Because Vucic is trying to be “little Tito” to balance between East and West, not realizing that he is in a different situation because now Russia is an open threat to European security. Today, Belgrade is the center for Russian subversion in the Western Balkans. Also, the US does not have a strategy in this region and is not aware of what is happening. Likewise, Putin has been planning an attack on Ukraine for years, in order to recover some alleged Russian territories, and many did not understand this strategically and did not prepare for it. Thus, even today they do not recognize the dangers in the Balkans – says Bugajski.

He recalled the very complicated financial and economic ties between the EU and Russia.

Look at the current German administration, and I’m not just referring to Gerhard Schroder, it’s the most corrupt government in the world, and that’s by Russian money. And then they complain that the Balkans are corrupt, and they don’t solve the problem at home. Deutsche Bank was a launderer of the dirty money of Russian tycoons, so these connections are so intertwined, he adds.

Delivery of weapons

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, he says that the length of the war will depend on the speed of arms delivery to Kiev.

Putin’s mobilization is a sign of desperation because the Russian army is suffering heavy losses. Eighty thousand soldiers were killed or injured in this war in six months. They lost more soldiers in half a year in Ukraine than in ten years of war in Afghanistan. They present themselves as a military force, the second strongest army, but they are not. I’ve seen footage of pre-WWII equipment. Everything Putin is doing now shows desperation – you are going full force into Ukraine because you must not lose that war. I don’t know exactly how long the war will last, but I can tell you – the more weapons the Ukrainians get, the faster they will return the territories. Speaking of weapons, they have very well-trained troops like those who were trained in the USA, and they are now professional soldiers, unlike these Russian ones. And since the Ukrainian army is becoming a NATO army, the Russian one is certainly weaker than it. I hear from American generals that Ukrainian soldiers are so dedicated that the weapons in their hands are even more effective. I also think that for the Alliance this is a big lesson about Ukrainian military strategy, military tactics, flexibility of approach, troop progression and how they resisted. It will be studied in military books – says Bugajski.

Poland is emerging as a new European power

When asked whether a new European Union awaits us after the invasion, Bugajski says that there are both positive and negative changes.

It is positive that all European Union countries have imposed sanctions on Russia and are respecting them. Also, most member states provide weapons to Ukraine. However, the negative thing is that there is always a danger that if Putin “pressures” Ukraine with more troops, weapons or threats due to nuclear war, some members will say – let’s step aside, let’s give them some Ukrainian territories. France is dealing with that challenge very successfully, but the leader in relation to the invasion of Ukraine is Great Britain, its role is as great as the USA. There is another very interesting thing about the EU that some new European powers are emerging as a result of this war. Look at Poland – it was the best ally of Ukraine, look at how they accepted millions of Ukrainians, not as refugees, but integrated them into society just like their own citizens, they have free education, health care, no refugee camps, they were literally taken in by Polish families. And even more importantly, most of the military equipment arrives via Poland, they train the Ukrainian forces, they have a lot of Polish volunteers. Now Poland is becoming the most important member of NATO East, the Fifth Army is moving to Poland and all the best equipment of the USA is now in that EU member – concluded Bugajski.