Pro-Western course of Montenegro overlooking Russia

Montenegro, a NATO member whose foreign policy is aligned with the European Union on the Russian aggression against Ukraine, was mentioned by the Moldovan President as a country from which individuals could come “with the intention of causing incidents in Moldova and for the benefit of Russia”.

In this context, President Maya Sandu referred to Serbia and Belarus, as well as Montenegro, the only European countries that have not joined the European Union’s sanctions against Russia and have condemned the aggression against Ukraine.

How did Montenegro, which, unlike Serbia and Belarus, in addition to the sanctions against Russia, has sent substantial military and financial aid to Ukraine and has taken in over 7 000 refugees, end up on the list of countries which, according to information from official Chisinau, may have acted in favour of Russia?

According to Boston University professor Vesko Garcevic, Montenegro belongs to the group of NATO and EU countries that “have a lukewarm and indifferent attitude, both to sanctions against Russia and to support for Ukraine”.

“The government is divided and mostly silent. Sometimes it seems to me that the only thing holding us together with the EU and its positions is the thin thread of NATO membership, otherwise we would rather follow Belgrade’s policy. I think most ministers, if asked privately now, would choose Russia.”

Indeed, in the August 2020 elections, the pro-Western government of Milo Đukanović, which brought the country into NATO, lost the elections against an alliance of mainly pro-Serb forces led by the pro-Russian Democratic Front and the civilian movement URA of Prime Minister Dritan Abazović.

Montenegro: Is the formal pro-Western orientation present in practice?

Several examples in Montenegro in recent days show the high level of tolerance of the state authorities towards the expression of pro-Russian narratives.

At the weekend, an undeclared rally was held in the centre of Podgorica, where the Russian flag with the letter “Z” symbolising aggression against Ukraine and the flag of the so-called “Donetsk Republic” were hoisted. The Montenegrin police and the prosecutor’s office in Podgorica assessed that there was neither a criminal offence nor a disturbance of public order.

A day later, a pro-Russian rally in Budva led to the cancellation of the Ukrainian band’s performance in Budva, and a day after that in Kotor. The Ukrainian Embassy responded by requesting protection for Ukrainians in Montenegro, and the police reported that the incident did not constitute a disturbance of public order.

On 15 February, Abazovic met with Aleksandar Macetina, founder of Noblewood Adriatica, who will open a vodka factory in Nikšić in March, Beluga Montenegro.

According to Pobjeda, the brand is unwanted in the US and some European countries because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed by Latvia on Russia have forced the company to suspend operations at its warehouse in that country.

According to the same newspaper, the Ukrainian Government has called on countries to impose sanctions against Mechetin for supporting Russia through the Royal Credit Bank, which is the beneficial owner.

The government had previously told the RFE/RL that Mechetin was not on the list of sanctioned Russian citizens and that his cooperation was undisputed.

Who were they thinking of in Chisinau when they mentioned Montenegro?

That the Moldovan President was not referring to official institutions when she mentioned Montenegro as a country from which threats to Modavia’s stability could emanate was conveyed to an adviser to the Montenegrin government by his Moldovan counterpart, Vladimir Cuc, who added that Chisinau would inform its NATO partners about the matter.

The day after the President’s statement, Moldova returned from the airport the Montenegrin boxers who were due to compete in the tournament that evening.

Prime Minister Abazovic had also said the day before that this was not official Montenegrin policy, but that there could be irresponsible individuals involved.

Boško Jakšić, a Belgrade-based foreign policy analyst, believes that any accusations of alleged involvement of Montenegrin citizens in the destabilisation of Moldova according to the Russian plan should be addressed to a section of Montenegrin politics.

“That corpus, which is distinctly pro-Russian and along the lines of politics and the Orthodox Church, which is very close to the Russian Orthodox Church, exists in the political being of Montenegro.”

Metropolitan Joanikije of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro spoke in mid-January about the Serbian Orthodox Church’s attitude towards Russia and rejected claims that Russia was undermining Montenegro.

“They talk about how every Russian who comes here is spreading ‘malign Russian influence’ and engaging in politics and undermining Montenegro. When have the Russians undermined Montenegro? That has never happened. And these are plain lies and fallacies,” Joanikije said during the church ceremony.

Jakšić states that these accusations from Chisinau do not refer to the entire Montenegrin political body, but to the part led by the Democratic Front:

“Despite all the demands that have existed for years for Montenegro to leave NATO, to withdraw its recognition of Kosovo’s independence and other things that would please Moscow, this is not happening.”

Denis Dermenji, a journalist for RFE/RLMoldova, says that Sandu’s statements may have surprised some of the countries mentioned, but that they are seen in Chisinau as a direct threat to Moldova’s security.

“In addition, the public has been asking for details, which the authorities have not provided for a long time”, Dermenji said.

A closer look at the history of Russia’s attempted interference in Montenegro

Professor Garcevic refused to comment on the Moldovan President’s statement, saying that he did not have her information:

“Montenegro’s experience in 2016 (“coup d’état”) and similar Russian operations elsewhere show that her statement should be taken seriously.”

As the most drastic example of Russian interference and attempts to destabilise Montenegro, the US and the European Union cite the attempted coup d’état on the day of the parliamentary elections in October 2016, which was linked to an attempt to prevent Montenegro’s entry into NATO.

Namely, two Russian citizens Eduard Shishmakov and Vladimir Popov, eight Citizens of Serbia and the leaders of the pro-Russian Democratic Front Milan Knežević and Andrija Mandić, according to the findings of the Special State Prosecutor’s Office, on the day of the elections in 2016, prepared a violent change of government, for which they were sentenced to prison sentences in the first instance proceedings. The Court of Appeal sent the case back for retrial.

The fact that the Democratic Front was financed by Russia during this period was confirmed by a source from the US administration at a briefing on 13 September 2022, who referred to their intelligence findings. Meanwhile, this pro-Russian party, along with two others, won power in Montenegro in 2020.

The same intelligence officer in Moldova and Montenegro

And it is precisely the name of Vladimir Popov, a Russian citizen who was not legally convicted of the coup d’état in Montenegro, that connects Montenegro and Moldova.

Vladimir Popov’s real identity is Vladimir Nikolayevich Mojsiyev, according to research by the British research network Bellingket and the Russian magazine “Insider”, which identified him and Eduard Shishmakov as officers of the Russian military intelligence service – the GRU.

Both men have denied before the Russian authorities their involvement in the coup attempt in Montenegro.

British media reported that russian agents, a few days after the failed mission, were “pulled” from Belgrade where they were staying by the head of Russian intelligence services, Nikolai Petrushev.

Mosseyev’s biography shows that he was involved in fuelling the separatist conflict in Moldova, similar to the Donbass scenario in Ukraine.

According to Insider and Bellingcat, Popov arrived in Moldova at the end of May 2014, which at that moment was preparing to sign the European Association Agreement. The Moldovan press reported that Popov went to Gagauzia (an autonomous region in Moldova) to meet with separatists and anti-EU activists there.

According to Bellingket and “Insider”, local intelligence agencies reported that GRU officers were planning to organise a Ukrainian-style riot in Moldova, relying on local paramilitary units trained in Rostov, Russia.

Changing sensibility of Montenegrin services towards Russian influence?

Since the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine until the end of September, six accredited Russian diplomats were declared unwelcome by the official Podgorica, a move welcomed by the international community, with whose cooperation the action was carried out.

The then Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ranko Krivokapic, announced that the largest arrest of Russian spies in Montenegro was under way, while Prime Minister Abazovic stated that the aim of the investigation was to preserve national interests.

Nevertheless, Abazovic immediately dismissed the Director of the National Security Agency, Savo Kentera, who was responsible for these actions.

Although 12 Russian diplomats were expelled in the first nine months of 2022, none have been expelled since September.

Montenegro had good relations with Russia until 2014, when, following EU policy, it joined the sanctions against Russia over Russia’s annexation of part of Ukraine, Crimea.

Montenegro’s entry into NATO in 2017 further distanced Podgorica and Moscow./RSE/