
With relations with Russia at an historic low, Armenia is taking bold steps towards the West.
The Armenian parliament, where Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party holds a majority, is set to vote in favour of a bill signaling the start of the European Union accession process. Pashinyan’s government has already approved the draft law initiating this process, supported by 60,000 signatures from Armenian citizens. Moreover, on January 14, Armenia signed a strategic partnership agreement with the US.
Pashinyan has announced that a roadmap for Armenia’s EU accession will be agreed upon with Brussels. He is the first Armenian leader to publicly declare Armenia’s goal of joining the EU. Pashinyan first mentioned Armenia’s European aspirations in October 2023, a month after the forced displacement in Nagorno-Karabakh, during a speech in the European Parliament: “Armenia is ready to be as close to the European Union as the EU deems possible,” he said.
Brussels has already responded to Yerevan’s decision. EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said that the EU will examine Armenia’s potential application for membership. She plans to visit Armenia in the first half of 2025 to coordinate upcoming actions with Pashinyan’s government.
Strategic mistake
By initiating the formal process of joining the EU, Armenia seeks to rectify a strategic mistake made 12 years ago. After four years of negotiations with the EU on an Association Agreement, former president Serzh Sargsyan unexpectedly announced Armenia’s intention to join the Russia-led Customs Union following a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 3, 2013.
Faced with the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the threat of war with Azerbaijan, Sargsyan calculated that joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) would secure Russia’s military-political support.
However, since the 2010s, Russia has signed arms supply deals worth billions of dollars with Azerbaijan. Russian-supplied weapons were used against Nagorno-Karabakh during the wars of 2016 and 2020.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from 2011 to 2020, Russia and Belarus supplied 67% of Azerbaijan’s military arsenal, with over 60% coming directly from Russia.
This led Pashinyan to accuse Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of preparing a war against Armenia. These accusations laid the groundwork for Armenia’s strategic pivot to the West.
By arming Baku against Armenia, Russia failed to protect Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians during the 44-day war in 2020 and Azerbaijan’s attack on September 19, 2023, which led to the forced displacement of 150,000 Armenians. Nagorno-Karabakh fell under Azerbaijan’s control. Russia also failed to protect Nagorno-Karabakh’s pro-Russian leaders, who, under the supposed “protection” of Russian peacekeepers, ended up in Azerbaijani prisons.
Moreover, Russia and the CSTO refused to fulfil their security obligations to Armenia during Azerbaijan’s military campaigns from 2021 to 2024, leading to the occupation of 300 square kilometres of Armenian territory. Russia’s and the CSTO’s refusal to honour their security commitments convinced much of Armenia’s leadership and society that Putin is encouraging Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to launch further attacks on Armenia. Putin not only denies Azerbaijan’s aggression but has recently claimed that no external aggression has occurred against Armenia.
For Armenia, membership in the EEU and CSTO is now widely regarded as a strategic mistake. Armenia abandoned the prospect of EU membership in 2013 for nothing.
Although the EU is not a military organisation, its observation mission has played a stabilising role on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, more effectively than Russian forces. Armenia has received €10mn in support from the European Peace Facility.
Russian warnings
With a broad arsenal of economic, political and energy leverage over Armenia, Russia has already begun warning Armenia about the consequences of leaving the EEU and joining the EU.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk warned that leaving the EEU could lead to higher energy and food prices in Armenia, and exports could drop by 70-80%. Russia is expected to increase gas prices to harm Armenia’s economy. It is also likely that Russia will ban Armenian goods from entering its market.
Armenia’s significant trade dependence on Russia might raise skepticism about EU integration goals. However, Armenian officials consider the increase in exports to Russia to be situational, as Armenian businesses are temporarily benefiting from the vacuum in the Russian markets.
Armenia also faces military-political threats from Russia. Moscow and Baku are demanding that Armenia provide a corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, known as the Zangezur Corridor, under the control of Russian security forces.
Within Pashinyan’s team, there is a well-founded assessment that the Kremlin is inciting Azerbaijan to launch attacks to secure the Zangezur Corridor. Pashinyan’s Crossroads of Peace project, aimed at improving Armenia’s links to neighbours Georgia, Iran and Turkey and excluding Russian involvement, has the support of the US, EU and France — Western powers that support Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Tough talks ahead
In the coming weeks, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Russia are expected to engage in serious political discussions about Armenia’s European integration and withdrawal from Russian integration structures.
Declaring that Armenia cannot sit on two chairs, Lavrov announced that he has invited Armenian Mirzoyan to Moscow. There is no doubt that Moscow will attempt to repeat the scenario of September 3, 2013, when Sargsyan, under Putin’s pressure, abandoned the EU Association Agreement and chose EEU membership instead.
That was not the choice of the Armenian people but Putin’s imposition on Armenia’s president. Waging war against Ukraine, Russia has failed to achieve its strategic goals and is not in the same position as it was in 2013. With the accession of Sweden and Finland, Nato has moved closer to Russia’s borders, and Putin has been unable to counter this step.