American diplomats: Montenegro should not miss the European chance

Less than three months after the election of the government, Montenegro again entered a period of political uncertainty.

The current government has been rocked by a dispute over the draft Basic Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC), which was approved despite opposition from the Democratic Party of Socialists (PDS) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) – which supported the minority government in end of April.

Former American diplomats and Washington experts on the Balkans estimate that the issue of the contract with the church is divisive and that it should not be the focus of the government.

“Choosing that path diverts attention and revives controversy in the country…Montenegro needs a period of continuous reforms and progress towards the European Union without returning to party politics, divisions in the country, and sensitive issues.” I’m sorry that the country is returning to that again,” said Kurt Walker, former US ambassador to NATO, for the Voice of America.

Edward Joseph, a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, asks whose interest it is in what he says is the government’s immediate response to a divisive issue.

“Prime Minister Abazovic understands that there was no discussion and debate about this, there was no compromise that people were willing to agree on”, Joseph assesses.

Montenegrin Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic emphasizes that internal issues, including relations with SOC, must be resolved in order to reach a broader consensus and unlock European integration.

For the former American ambassador to Montenegro, Roderick Moore, it is still surprising that the Minority Government, at the beginning of its mandate, decided to make one of its priorities an issue that, as he points out, is controversial.

He worries that this could cause a longer period of uncertainty and stagnation and that Brussels’ goodwill could decline.

“I admit that the issue of regulating relations with SOC and all communities is important. This is not the practice here in the United States, where we are very strict about the separation of church and state. I admit that there are important issues that need to be resolved, that they have been postponed for a long time, that other religious communities have managed to sign contracts with the Montenegrin government,” says Moore.

“I understand the urge of every leading Montenegrin politician to put an end to this issue and focus on others. However, it is not that simple. The reality is that it is a very delicate issue that arouses strong emotions in Montenegro. I think that this issue – and I’m not judging anyone here, it’s just my opinion – would be best resolved with a strong and broad consensus in society and certainly among political forces”, says the first American ambassador to independent Montenegro.

After the election of the government, both the European Union and the United States announced that they had a duty to speed up reforms and the EU membership process. The same thing was said during their visit to Podgorica, high European officials – Joseph Borel and Oliver Varhelyi.

Membership in the Union, according to Edward Joseph and Kurt Wolker, is an issue on which consensus and unity can be achieved in Montenegro. However, Joseph warns that there is a risk that Podgorica will miss its chance to progress towards this goal.

“Montenegro has a golden opportunity that the other five countries of the region do not have. It has a golden opportunity to advance towards membership in the European Union. This has also been confirmed by EU officials. And instead of this being the focus, the priority – as Prime Minister Abazovic had promised – the government under his leadership is turning to the issue of relations with the Serbian Orthodox Church, which can only lead to complications, division and waste of this extraordinary opportunity “, believes the American foreign policy expert.

Wolker, currently a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), believes that Podgorica has time to “get back on track”.

“This is the period when the European Union is really open. That’s why it’s important to take advantage of it, because nobody knows when that window will close again, when attitudes will change again. We’ve all heard in the past about enlargement fatigue, immigration, taking responsibility for countries that aren’t ready. The fact that the EU is now giving signals that it is ready is something that Montenegro does not want to lose”, is the advice of the former American diplomat.

There is also the question of what Washington expects, in the light of the new development of political events, from Montenegrin leaders and politicians, since he said after the government elections that the urgent tasks, in addition to progress on the road to the EU, are the fight against organized crime and corruption and holding Russia responsible for the war in Ukraine.

VOA did not receive a response to this question from the State Department.

Ambassador Moore for Voice of America assesses that these are very important priorities for Montenegro.

“I will focus on the third, where it should be emphasized to what extent Russia disrupts, violates and questions the international order. It calls into question all the principles on which that order is based and from which small countries like Montenegro benefit – such as territorial integrity, sovereignty, equality”

I hope that Montenegro will continue to be a strong ally. These are big issues – and I don’t want to minimize the importance of internal ones – that are on top of some of the issues that are being discussed in Montenegro,” Moore points out.

“Instability in the region and Serbian nationalism”

Montenegro, in terms of instability, is no exception in the Western Balkans, where conflicts and tensions are present in all countries, emphasizes Joseph, who recently visited the region. He accuses the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, of wanting to prevent the European integration of a part of the Balkan countries – Montenegro, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

“Because the question would be raised as to why the Montenegrins are progressing towards the European Union and not Serbia. And this question can be quite embarrassing for Aleksandar Vucic. At the same time, it can block Kosovo’s progress simply by refusing to recognize it. Bosnia and Herzegovina also cannot progress as long as Republika Srpska blocks serious reforms. That is why he can keep the region in that state, avoid serious issues and maintain his position where Western leaders approach him as a factor of stability and a dominant figure in the region,” says Edward Joseph.

Wolker accuses Serbia of “deliberately promoting a kind of Serbian nationalism in the region”.

“And that’s very dangerous – whether it’s Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina or anywhere else. It also instrumentalizes the Serbian Orthodox Church to contribute to that agenda. And it is in line with Russia’s goals in the Balkans – to create chaos and instability and prevent the region from joining the European Union.”

Vucic rejects accusations that he is fueling tensions in the region and claims that his priority is peace, economic cooperation and the overall progress of the Western Balkans.

“I was glad that President Vucic congratulated Montenegro on the National Day celebration. It just means something. I hope that the movements of the leaders in Belgrade match their rhetoric and words. And not only in Montenegro. I am talking about Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the leaders of Serbia have emphasized their commitment to the Dayton Agreement for many years, in contrast to the leaders of Republika Srpska, who want to reopen the Dayton issue. I hope that a similar dynamic is present when it comes to Montenegro. Montenegrin independence is a done deal, it is irreversible,” says former ambassador Roderick Moore.

“The United States always pays attention to the Balkans”

VOA’s interlocutors agree that Washington needs to be more proactive and vocal in the region, though it has left Brussels to translate its progress efforts.

It is difficult at the highest level of the American government – let’s say when it comes to the president – to devote so much time thinking about the Balkans now, because the situation is not nearly as bad as elsewhere”, explains the former ambassador to Montenegro who is no longer in the US government.

“However, America has a great diplomatic capacity. Sometimes the conclusion is heard that the US does not pay attention to the Balkans. Trust me, the US always pays attention. Maybe not at the level of the president, but there are a large number of people in the State Department, the secretaries of defense, the secretaries of finance, in the intelligence community working on Western Balkans issues. It’s not black and white. They haven’t lost their focus and they won’t,” Moore is convinced.

However, Edward Joseph criticizes current US policy in the region.

“One country stands out in the region by undermining the US and the EU when it comes to the most important issue – the Russian occupation of Ukraine.” This is Serbia. Both the US and the EU are doing nothing about it… The United States praises Aleksandar Vucic even though he supports Russia by refusing to implement sanctions.”

According to Kurt Wolker, the American position still has a lot of weight and the United States should demand even more the strengthening of democratic institutions and the western orientation of the region.