America on the eve of elections

Janusz Bugajski, 10 October 2024

All national elections are important but the presidential ballot on November 5^th has become crucial for determining America’s future. Both Democrats and Republicans are hurling charges that if the other party wins then the United States will face the destruction of its freedoms and of democracy itself.

According to Kamala Harris supporters, Trump will assemble a group of loyalists who will dismantle democracy and build an authoritarian and even fascist system. According to Donald Trump supporters, a Harris victory would unleash leftist radicals that would eradicate the liberties enshrined in the constitution and impose state control over society.

Reality may be less dramatic than these doomsday predictions, but it still remains troublesome, especially under a second Trump presidency. Harris is not a radical progressive and although her presidency may increase state regulations, raise social spending, and increase taxes on the wealthy, the core legislative and judicial institutions are unlikely to be endangered. Nonetheless, Republicans fear that she will reverse many of the conservative reforms and expand the Supreme Court to include liberal judges.

In contrast, Trump has already indicated that in his second term he will undermine the separation of powers and congressional oversight over the executive branch. Many of his militant MAGA supporters would welcome an autocratic Trumpocracy and even the most moderate Republicans may follow their lead to ensure re-election to House and Senate. Traditional Republicans, such as former Vice President Mike Pence, who prevented Trump from upturning the constitution, will have little influence over White House policy.

Trump has approved the “presidential transition” Project 2025, a plan formulated by the Heritage Foundation to transform governance. The project would give the President full control over the executive branch by replacing tens of thousands of federal civil servants with political loyalists and provide Trump with unchecked powers over the judicial system. It also focuses on impregnating conservative Christian values through all state institutions. Many legal scholars assert that it would discard the constitution and create an authoritarian presidential system. Equally worrisome, if Trump pursues such a project, it could foment civil resistance and irreconcilable political polarization and spark armed conflicts between radical supporters and opponents of the president.

A Harris presidency will also not be immune to rising conflicts. In particular, she will need to handle what is perceived as an immigration crisis that has fueled the rise of MAGA. Mass immigration in Europe has similarly provoked the growth of xenophobic nationalism. If Harris is seen to be accommodating of illegal immigrants, Trumpist revanchism could gain ascendancy and even lead to armed conflicts. Trump himself will be stirring the mayhem by again claiming that the Democrats stole the elections.

The foreign policy arena will also be deeply affected by the result of the November ballot. A Harris win may lead to some new international initiatives but will certainly not support dictators such as Putin or Xi. In stark contrast, a new Trump presidency will be less reliant on traditional Republican officials, most of whom have condemned Trump and declared their support for Harris, including former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Trump is likely to press Ukraine to surrender territory and forge a peace agreement with Moscow simply to make himself look like a winner. This will be welcomed by Putin as a green light for further territorial conquests when Russia rebuilds its military. Trump will most probably lift sanctions on Russia, withdraw US troops from Europe, and make it even clearer that America will not come to Europe’s assistance in case of any war. Although Trump depicts himself as a peaceful deal-maker, in reality his reluctance to intervene military will primarily encourage Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and other tyrannical regimes to plan their next foreign escapades.

Seizing territory and then suing for peace is an old formula for conquest that Trump is likely to accept with little concern for the victim. In effect, he could become complicit in the expansion of global authoritarianism and imperialism, while claiming that he has kept the US out of war. This would upend the consistent policies pursued by all US administrations since World War Two and unravel the network of American alliances around the globe. Unless of course, the United States itself is transformed into an autocracy under Trump that views other dictators as valuable allies against the liberal democracies.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His new book published this fall is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power.