A provocation and then an offensive – the Kremlin’s disinformation plan to invade Ukraine

The provocation, perhaps a false attack on the pro-Russians in the Donbas, fabricated by Moscow’s services to have an excuse, then an offensive to retaliate.

These are the Kremlin’s plans to invade Ukraine, recently understood by Western intelligence.

US President Joe Biden during a recent phone conversation told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that he must stop, otherwise the allies are united in their determination to make Russia pay the highest price that has happened to date.

According to intelligence sources, the Russian military escalation in recent days has been very intense. At the front of the Ukrainian border, along the entire line surrounding the country from Belarus to Crimea, there are currently 95 battalions stationed. 30 of them are permanently stationed in these regions, another 17 are expected to arrive soon, bringing the total to 120 battalions, which Putin considers the critical threshold needed to launch the attack.

All this has already been proven by satellite photos, but the weapon in the hands of the western services is the interception of conversations between the Russian generals, where the details of the plan are noticed.

The American media does not rule out the possibility that it is a deliberate disinformation spread by the Kremlin to confuse opponents, but no one doubts that the communications took place and were recorded.

The first step is thought to be a “fake” operation against the Russophiles in the Donbas, staged and carried out by Moscow’s secret services, to build the excuse.

Once the excuse is made, the attack will start within a week, probably from the north, taking advantage of the exercises that are taking place in Belarus, between the two scenarios.

The first, considered the most likely, is “scorched earth”: a demonstration of overwhelming military force, carried out in a hybrid format, which would cause devastating damage to the gates of Kiev, but would then be followed by immediate withdrawal of troops within Russian borders.

The second scenario, would be the march towards Kiev, to install a Russian puppet government.

There is a third hypothesis, that of the incident in the skies of Lithuania, namely a violation of airspace to which NATO would be obliged to respond. However, intelligence considers it as a scenario that would have catastrophic consequences, which could cause a world war.

Officially Kiev invites to avoid this scenario, but in reality, fears invasion and is considering concessions for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements.

The second session of the Normandy format meeting, which took place in Berlin on February 10, yielded no results, and Moscow demanded that the discussion resume in the Tripartite Contact Group, which includes Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE. Putin could only withdraw if he got something very significant from the negotiations, otherwise he would have to vent the military apparatus by posing as attacked and avoiding the accusation of forcibly changing borders.

Meanwhile, on February 9, the Atlantic Council approved the preemptive responses, deciding to install 4 battalions of the Rapid Reaction Force in Hungary.

The last Biden-Putin conversation had a final character, to warn Putin that the West is not bluffing and to persuade him to stop through a diplomatic means. / The Geopost /