Opinion polls in Serbia predict trouble for Vucic

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) are on track to lose the upcoming parliamentary elections, according to the latest polls from Sprint Insight, obtained by IntelliNews.

The poll, conducted between June 23 and July 5 with 1,458 respondents, shows widespread dissatisfaction with the current government. More than half of respondents (53.5%) believe that Serbia is moving in the wrong direction, while only 33.5% are optimistic about the country's future.

The poll reveals a growing appetite for change: 54.8% of respondents support the “Student List” – a coalition of professors, workers, farmers, experts and students – compared to 42.1% who support Vučić’s coalition, which includes the SNS, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and the far-right Zavetnici.

Vucic, who has dominated Serbian politics for 12 years and has often relied on snap elections to renew his mandate, appears to be losing power amid growing popular discontent. The ruling party faces its biggest challenge yet, stemming from ongoing student protests sparked by a fatal accident in November 2024. The collapse of a concrete roof at the Novi Sad train station killed 16 people, sparking widespread demonstrations against corruption.

The tragedy led to the resignation of Prime Minister Miloš Vučević in January 2025 and a cosmetic cabinet reshuffle, but unrest continues. While protests in early 2025 were largely peaceful, clashes between demonstrators and police have become increasingly frequent since late June, escalating tensions across the country.

According to the poll, 42.3% of respondents openly reject the current government, while only 26.8% express full support. Trust in Vučić has declined: Nearly 40% said they have never trusted him, and another 12% said they had lost their trust in recent months.

Corruption and mismanagement of public funds were cited by 30.7% as the main reasons for the recent slowdown in growth, while 16.4% blamed the slowdown on ongoing student blockades and unrest. Economic hardship remains acute: More than 11% describe their living conditions as “very harsh,” and almost half say they are barely making ends meet.

Public trust in institutions is low, with only moderate levels of trust in the church and the military. More than half (52.6%) believe the government acted unreasonably after the Novi Sad tragedy.

The demand for extraordinary parliamentary elections, made by the leaders of student protests since May, has received considerable support: 33.1% of respondents fully support the demand, and another 18.2% support it mostly.

The political landscape is volatile, harboring the potential for further unrest and unpredictable developments. Vučić could soon bow to pressure and call early elections to save his political position, risking the end of the SNS's long dominance if the student-led opposition can agree on a credible alternative.

Despite political turmoil, almost half of respondents (46.9%) still prefer democracy to other systems, although almost a quarter expressed a willingness to a “heavy hand” in certain situations.

Serbia's geopolitical orientation remains divided: 16.7% prefer rapprochement with China and Russia, 28.5% support a non-aligned stance towards the East, 18.5% support closer ties with the West, and 25.3% are undecided.

https://www.intellinews.com/serbia-polls-spell-trouble-for-vucic-391672/