Serbia, European Venezuela

Dragan Shormaz for The Geopost

The stormy start of 2026 has highlighted, to the extreme, the extent of the ruin and strategic impasse in which Serbia finds itself under the clutches of the Vučić regime. The arrest of Nicolas Maduro and the operational implementation of Trump's new, robust approach to confronting the global axis of evil composed of corrupt autocrats and heads of state-sponsored drug cartels have caused unprecedented nervousness in Vučić himself and his loyal Cerberus. Thus, Trump - who after his election victory was called "Serb" - almost overnight turned into a world thief, pirate and destroyer of international law.

What is most hypocritical in the regime’s general lament over the fate of Vučić’s Venezuelan strategic partner is the fact that they did not utter a word about the much more serious violations of international law and mass crimes that the Putin regime has committed in recent years through its brutal aggression against Ukraine. From this case it is clear that Vučić’s radicals collectively dreamed of the Russian army on the Danube, the dissolution of NATO and the North Atlantic partnership of democratic and civilized countries. Instead, Trump clearly demonstrated his determination to confront the axis of evil worldwide, dispelling the dream of his ardent supporters in Serbia until yesterday.

However, what is most worrying in the case of Serbia is that, after the collapse of the idea of ​​the world order in which he had invested all his political capital, Aleksandar Vučić himself has completely lost his compass, as well as the little political and mental rationality he had before. And this seriously jeopardizes the fate of all of Serbia and its future. Why is this happening? Why was Serbia the only European country to participate in the inauguration of Maduro, who is not recognized as the president of Venezuela by democratic states? Ana Brnabić, who was present there, tried with that bizarre story about a Venezuelan soldier greeting Vučić by beating his (un)heroic chest, to emphasize the “great love” between Maduro and Serbia. Since in politics and international relations everything is about interest, let us ask: what interest could connect Maduro and Vučić, if we know that it is not oil?! Serbia does not buy oil from Venezuela! Considering that almost no arrest of traffickers transporting cocaine from South America to Europe goes by without a criminal from Serbia also being arrested, perhaps the American DEA knows the answer to this question?! Time will tell the truth.

In his speech at the end of last year, Vučić warned of spending billions on arming the army (which also includes the corrupt “tribute” to his regime), which represents a completely inefficient expenditure of funds. Thanks to its insistence on the outdated concept of military neutrality, Serbia is today the only country in Europe that does not have a single ally! And it is clear to anyone that such a state and its army are without any real power, as well as without any possibility of truly protecting the national interests entrusted to them.

What was also significant in Vučić’s speech is that he never mentioned the EU, nor his promise that by the end of 2026 he would complete everything needed for Serbia’s membership in the Union. This is a clear signal that Vučić, on behalf of Serbia, has chosen self-isolation and the cessation of further fulfillment of the conditions for EU membership. For the citizens of Serbia, this means even less democracy, free media and fair democratic competition, and more poverty, backwardness compared to the developed democratic world and toxic Russian propaganda aimed at transforming Serbia into a European Venezuela.

Vučić also failed to mention that Serbia's economic growth in 2025 was barely 2 percent, instead of the projected 4–4.5 percent. For Serbia to reach the level of development of Slovakia, it would have to achieve a minimum annual growth of 7 percent over the next 20 years – and this without inflation, which currently ranks Serbia among the five worst countries in Europe in terms of purchasing power of citizens, and with the assumption that Slovakia will not increase its economic growth over these 20 years! So, without the European market, without European funds and without European investments, Serbia will regress, with no chance of achieving the economic development that Vučić talks about. However, it has already become clear to the majority in Serbia that Vučić is either lying or talking about things he knows nothing about.

The lack of strategic vision for the country's development and the existence of a blind faith in the radical illusions of the 90s are also evidenced by the new warnings about the construction of an oil pipeline to Hungary to continue supplying Russian oil, although the EU institutions have made a clear decision that by the end of 2027, member states will completely stop buying oil and gas from Russia. This is also evidenced by the fact that the import of Russian gas to the EU in 2025 fell by a full 44 percent, reaching a level lower than the import of gas from the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Gas prices on the European market in December 2025 were about 10 percent lower than in December 2011. The purchase of Russian gas in Serbia is not transparent and we do not know the real price, but I am sure that it is not lower than when the EU buys on the open and free market.

Serbia under the regime of Aleksandar Vučić represents a state without any real prospects and without any chance of catching up with its European and NATO neighbors. This is reflected not only in the standard of living of the population, but also in the technological backwardness and the lack of state capacities to face modern security challenges. Such a Serbia can only experience the same fate that it suffered in the 90s, which it squandered in lost wars and wrong strategic decisions.

Only full democratization, renouncing toxic ties with Russia and China, and membership in the EU and NATO can transform Serbia into a healthy and normal European society. Everything else is illusions that we will pay dearly for in the near future that awaits us.