From president to provocateur: Dmitry Medvedev's long journey

Dmitry Medvedev has come a long way since his time as Russia's president, when he once stood next to then-US President Barack Obama and declared that "the solution to many world problems depends on the joint will of the United States and Russia."

This week, in his semi-official role as the Kremlin's attack dog, Medvedev twice suggested that President Donald Trump's administration was pushing the U.S. and Russia toward war and warned about Russia's nuclear capabilities after Trump announced new sanctions against Russia.

While Medvedev is deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, he lacks executive power. However, his provocative comments this week caused an uproar.

Medvedev said on Telegram on Thursday that Trump should imagine the apocalyptic TV series "The Walking Dead" and pointed to the Soviet ability to launch automatic nuclear strikes.

The US president responded on Friday by ordering the deployment of two nuclear submarines to "relevant regions".

The dispute comes after Trump's new deadline for Putin to end the war in Ukraine, along with the threat of US sanctions if a ceasefire is not reached - an ultimatum the Kremlin is unlikely to follow.

Medvedev presents himself differently today than he did when he began his term as Russia's president at the age of 42. He was a trained lawyer with no ties to the security services, unlike current leader Vladimir Putin, a former KGB agent. He was familiar with the internet – again unlike Putin – and wanted to modernize the Russian economy and fight corruption.

However, his presidency was seen as a temporary measure, a way for Putin to bypass constitutional restrictions and stay in power.

Since resigning as president in 2012 to allow Putin to return to that office, Medvedev has transformed from a relatively liberal technocrat into a fiercely nationalist politician who mocks Russia's opponents with provocative posts on social media.

Just compare his statement in a 2009 CNN interview – that Russia “should have good and developed relations with the West in every respect” – with this comment from May: “As for Trump’s words about Putin ‘playing with fire’ and that ‘really bad things’ will happen to Russia. I only know of one REALLY BAD thing – World War III. I hope Trump understands that!”

This change appears to have begun after his presidency, when Medvedev began to reposition himself to maintain the trust of the ruling United Russia party.

In 2012, he told lawmakers: “People often say to me, ‘You’re a liberal.’ I can tell you honestly: I have never had liberal beliefs.”

As president, Medvedev told CNN that “the level of corruption was categorically unacceptable.” Later, as prime minister, however, he became the target of an investigation by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, which alleged that he had built a “corruption empire” with luxury real estate, luxury yachts and wineries across Russia.

Medvedev's spokeswoman, Natalya Timakova, dismissed the investigation, which quickly garnered 14 million views on YouTube, as a "propaganda explosion," but Medvedev became the target of street protests.

He unexpectedly resigned as prime minister in 2020, as Putin undertook constitutional reform to consolidate his power.

Since then, he has launched a series of xenophobic and insulting attacks against Ukrainians and Western leaders from his seat on the Security Council. Medvedev has 1.7 million subscribers on Telegram, as well as X accounts in Russian and English with a total of almost 7 million followers.

After Russia's complete invasion of Ukraine, Medvedev called the Kiev leadership "cockroaches breeding in a jar."

In a speech earlier this year, Medvedev displayed an image depicting Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as Muppets and called for the "destruction of the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev."

He often mentions the specter of Nazism, saying this year that the new German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, had “proposed an attack on the Crimean Bridge. Think twice, Nazi!”

And he is not afraid to wield his nuclear sword, saying in 2022: "The idea of ​​punishing a country that possesses one of the greatest nuclear capabilities is absurd and potentially poses a threat to the existence of humanity."

Medvedev also delights in personal attacks. Last month, he mocked Trump with a social media post warning, “Don’t go the way of Sleepy Joe,” a reference to Trump’s own description of former President Joe Biden.

Despite his outlandish rhetoric, analysts say Medvedev plays a calculated role in Kremlin communications.

The Institute for the Study of War says it is being used to “amplify inflammatory rhetoric designed to create panic and fear among Western decision-makers” as part of a “coordinated top-down and Kremlin-led information strategy.”

However, commentators say it should not be taken literally.

Referring to this week's debates, Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Citizenship called both Medvedev's comments and Trump's response "pure theatrics."

"Having refrained from using nuclear weapons for the past three years, Russia will undoubtedly not use them in response to a new round of US sanctions," Lieven said.

At the 2009 press conference with Obama, Medvedev was a newly appointed and confident president who saw himself as much more than a surrogate for Putin. He said that day: “We possess the largest nuclear arsenals and we bear full responsibility for these arsenals.”

Sixteen years later, he has the freedom of a provocateur.

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