Is Kazakhstan Vladimir Putin's next "victim"?

The increase in the price of liquefied gas in Kazakhstan has sparked massive protests. The unrest began in the first days of the year, while clashes between protesters and police continued this morning in the city of Alma-Ata. Protesters attacked the administration building while police are using rubber bullets to disperse the crowd.

Kazakhstan, a Central Asian country of 18 million people that was once part of the Soviet Union, is rich in energy resources, including oil and natural gas. Rising gas prices have prompted residents of the cities of Zhanaozen and Aktau to hold rallies to protest the decision, which the Energy Ministry said was due to a surge in sales on the stock exchange.

Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree declaring a state of emergency in the Almaty region. The decree also imposed a curfew from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m.

Dissatisfaction with issues such as corruption, unemployment and low wages have also been mentioned in the protests.

According to the Ministry of the Interior, more than 200 people have been arrested during the protests "in some regions", but observers have said that the real figure could be higher.

The ministry said that at least 95 people were injured in the clash.

Moscow reacts

There was an immediate reaction from Putin's presidency, where they expressed their concern about the situation in Kazakhstan. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that they still do not have an official request to help Kazakhstan overcome this situation, but appealed for a solution through internal dialogue, without outside interference.

However, under Russian law, if a country requests military assistance or other intervention, the decision must be made in parliament (the Duma), and then the way is opened for Putin to extend military influence to a particular country.

Whether Putin will use this situation to send military troops to protect President Tokayev in Kazakhstan remains to be seen in the coming days. However, the protesters are more than vocal in their demands, motivating more and more citizens to join them in the protests, despite the violence that the police have used today.

Meanwhile, the president of Kazakhstan has requested assistance from Prime Minister Armen Pashinyan under the CSTO agreement.

The CSTO Collective Security Council has made a decision to send peacekeepers to Kazakhstan for a limited time in order to stabilize the situation in that country, Armenian Prime Minister Nikola Pashinyan said.

Eternal leader

Kazakhstan is a country with a formal democratic system, which from independence in 1990 until 2019 was led by the autocratic president Nursultan Nazarbayev. He is now perceived as the father of the nation and is still respected by foreign diplomats. After his resignation, the capital of Kazakhstan was renamed from Astana to Nur-Sultan, in his honor. The new president Tokayev is considered to be in the shadow and dictate of his predecessor Nazarbayev. Although Nazarbayev, 81, officially resigned as president three years ago, he has become the target of demonstrators who say: "Old man, go away!"

Pro-Kremlin media outlets have portrayed the protests as part of a broader Western campaign against Moscow and its allies. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Wednesday that these were simply “some crazy Russian claims” and “part of the standard playbook of Russian disinformation.”

Kazakhstan has good relations with Russia and China as neighbors, but has recently attempted to build relations with the US, the EU, Turkey and countries in the region. Along with Russia, it is part of the Eurasian Union and, as a former Soviet republic, is considered an ally of Moscow.

G.Venhari

The Geopost